Prediction Achuapa vs Mixco 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the Liga Nacional on 17/09/2025

Form book versus standing: Mixco arrives as clear favourite

Achuapa and Mixco meet in El Progreso on 17 September with two very different trajectories this Apertura campaign. Achuapa sit down the table in ninth after 11 matches, collecting 13 points from a 3-4-4 record and a goals difference that hints at defensive fragility — 13 scored and 14 conceded overall. Their recent run has been stop-start: a 4-1 home win over Xelajú stands out, but it is sandwiched between heavy defeats and draws, and their last outing ended in a 3-0 loss to Municipal. Mixco, by contrast, top the standings with 26 points from 12 games. The away side have been the more consistent unit, boasting eight wins, two draws and just two defeats. Their recent 1-0 victory at Comunicaciones continues a productive spell that has seen them post multiple narrow, efficient results away from home.

Statistical edges and tactical clues

Numbers underline Mixco’s control of territory and chance creation. They average more attacks and dangerous attacks per match than Achuapa, and have compiled a higher shots total (125 to Achuapa’s 106) plus more shots on target (43 against 39). Mixco’s defensive resume is equally impressive: seven clean sheets for the visitors compared with three for Achuapa, and a more favourable goals conceded record both home and away. Achuapa’s home numbers show they can be engaging — high BTTS percentages at home and a slightly higher over-2.5 frequency — but their away defensive record (8 conceded) and recent heavy defeat raise questions about consistency.

Head-to-head ammo also points towards a Mixco edge. The most recent meeting in April finished 1-0 in Mixco’s favour, a narrow result that mirrors their current ability to win with tidy defending rather than outscoring opponents. Recent individual match snapshots also tell a story: Achuapa’s last match named Alexis Matta as their best performer despite the 3-0 reverse, while Mixco’s latest victory saw Fernando Gabriel Arce earn the match’s top rating — small indicators of which teams are finding decisive contributors at the right moments.

Match outlook and tone

Expect a competitive encounter where Mixco will look to impose structure, limit risks and exploit transitions. Achuapa at home will try to press and force openings, but their recent defensive lapses and Mixco’s propensity for clean sheets suggest the hosts may struggle to break down their visitors consistently. The match should be tactical and cagey early on, with the best chance of a decisive moment coming from a single break or set-piece rather than an open, high-scoring spectacle.

Betting suggestion

1X2 — Mixco to win. Mixco’s superior form, cleaner defensive record and recent narrow victories make an away win the most probable outcome based on the provided data.