Prediction AFC Wimbledon vs Wigan Athletic 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for League One on 22/11/2025

Match outlook: home edge at Cherry Red Records Stadium

AFC Wimbledon welcome Wigan Athletic to Plough Lane on 22 November in what shapes up as a gripping League One tussle. Wimbledon arrive with momentum — seven wins in their latest run with a string that reads W-L-L-L-W-D-W-W-W-W — and their home numbers underline a side tough to break down at Cherry Red Records. Across 15 matches this season they sit seventh with 25 points and have conceded only five times at home, a defensive record that turns this fixture into a contest where the hosts can reasonably fancy their chances.

Wigan, by contrast, have struggled for consistency. Seventeenth in the table with 18 points, they’ve drawn a lot of games (six draws) and their away record shows vulnerabilities: 14 goals conceded on the road suggest they may be susceptible to pressure from a disciplined Wimbledon backline. The Latics’ recent cup outings show resilience — Dara Costelloe earned praise as Wigan’s standout in their last EFL Trophy tie — but their league form contains too many dropped opportunities to suggest a confident road trip.

What the numbers tell us

The market prices reflect the tightness of the encounter: home win at 2.68 (37.3% implied), draw 2.96 (33.8%), and away 2.80 (35.7%). Those odds underline a three-way game where small edges matter. Wimbledon’s home shape — nine goals scored and five conceded at Plough Lane — pairs well with Wigan’s inability to keep clean sheets away (only three on the season) and their lower attacking average when travelling. Both teams have similar season goal tallies, but the key separator is home defensive solidity versus away fragility.

For punters thinking about alternatives to the 1X2 line, the goal markets deserve attention. Wimbledon’s fixtures have produced over 2.5 goals in just over half of their matches, while Wigan’s games have been mixed; timing a move on goals could pay off if you wait for clearer team news. If you want to sharpen your approach to goal-betting, consider reading about the right time to place bets on goal markets, and for broader selection strategy see these soccer betting tips and the choice of markets.

Prediction and reasoning

Expect a competitive, low-to-medium scoring contest with AFC Wimbledon carrying the slight edge. Their recent form, home defensive record and the marginally more convincing points haul make them the likeliest winners on paper. Wigan have the ability to nick a result through resilience, but the probability and stats swing toward a Wimbledom home success.

Betting suggestion: Back AFC Wimbledon to win (1) at 2.68. Stake carefully and consider a small stake or a double with a low-risk selection given the narrow market margins.