Prediction Al Ahli vs Al Shabab 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the Pro League on 17/10/2025

Match preview: Al Ahli hunting perfection at Alinma Stadium

Al Ahli arrive at Alinma Stadium in Jeddah with momentum and a sense of invincibility in league play. Through four Pro League rounds they remain unbeaten — two wins and two draws — and sit comfortably on eight points. Recent results underline a side capable of both scoring and entertaining: a 4-2 victory over Nasaf, a 3-3 blockbuster with Al Hilal and an encouraging 2-0 trip to Al Hazm. Their continental outing also saw them hold Al Duhail to a 2-2 draw, with Ali Majrashi singled out as the best performer in that match. The home numbers back up the eye test: Al Ahli average 14.5 shots per game with 19 on target across fixtures shown, three clean sheets and a high rate of dangerous attacks (61 per match). The crowd at the 64,200-capacity Alinma Stadium will expect an attacking show.

Al Shabab’s uphill challenge

Al Shabab’s campaign has been more jagged: one win, one draw and two defeats leave them in 12th with four points. Their recent slate includes a surprise home defeat to Al Kholood and a penalty shootout win over Abha after a 2-2 draw — signs of a team that can be resilient but also vulnerable. On the numbers they’ve generated an average of 12.5 shots and 16 efforts on target across the reported games, but defensive frailties stand out: six goals conceded in league fixtures so far. Yannick Carrasco’s performance in the loss to Al Kholood was the standout in that outing, yet the overall trend points to inconsistency.

Key factors shaping the outcome

Odds and form tilt heavily towards the hosts. Bookmakers make Al Ahli clear favorites, reflecting their unbeaten streak, stronger home metrics and a more cohesive recent run (their last ten matches show six wins, three draws and a single loss). Al Shabab have flashes of attacking bite but inconsistency and a leaky defence away from home undermine their prospects. The last meeting recorded in May ended 3-1 to Al Shabab, a reminder that past results can be deceptive — form this season gives the edge to Al Ahli.

Prediction and betting suggestion

Given the balance of form, stats and home advantage, the most sensible market here is the 1X2. Backing Al Ahli to win aligns with the bookmaker probability and with their unbeaten league start, superior attacking metrics and stout home performances. There is value in a straight home win rather than stretching into riskier double chances or goal lines: Al Ahli look built to control the tempo, create chances (58 total shots across recent reports) and see off a brittle Al Shabab rearguard. Betting suggestion: Al Ahli to win (1) at 1.50 — a confident, data-backed pick for a moderate stake.