Prediction Al Najma vs Al Ahli 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the Pro League on 23/10/2025

Match outlook and context

The Pro League heads to Buraydah on 23 October as Al Najma prepare to host Al Ahli at the King Abdullah Sport City Stadium. On paper the fixture reads as a stark contrast in momentum: Al Najma sit rooted to the bottom of the table after five matches with no points and a worrying goals balance, while Al Ahli arrive unbeaten in the league and buoyed by a thumping 4-0 victory in their most recent outing just three days earlier. The raw numbers tell a story of a club scrambling for form and a side that has found a rhythm — and that narrative will shape expectations ahead of kickoff.

Form, recent results and statistical edge

Al Najma arrive having suffered a heavy 5-1 loss to Al Kholood on 17 October, a result that exposed defensive fragilities and continued a run of poor domestic results. Their league record stands at five defeats from five, with only four goals scored and thirteen conceded; clean sheets have been elusive. By contrast Al Ahli’s recent sequence contains two wins and three draws in the league, and their Champions League triumph — a 4-0 win over Al Gharafa where Franck Kessié earned the match’s top rating — underlines the confidence flowing through the squad. Statistically, Al Ahli average more than fourteen shots per match and have kept three clean sheets, while Al Najma’s attacking returns and defensive solidity are both problematic. Corner averages, attacking numbers and shots on target all tilt toward the visitors, reinforcing the notion that this clash is likely to be controlled by Al Ahli.

Tactical battle and likely script

Expect Al Ahli to leverage superior possession, higher shot volume and dangerous attacks to press Al Najma early. The hosts have shown moments of fight but have not translated those into consistent results; conceding multiple goals in recent matches suggests they could struggle to contain a confident Al Ahli front line. The psychological boost for Al Ahli from continental success will play into the league arena — teams riding that momentum generally carry it forward, and the visiting side’s undefeated league record suggests a composed approach rather than reckless attacking overcommitment.

Betting suggestion

Given the form lines, recent results and the bookmakers’ stance, the clearest market to target is the match winner (1X2). Back Al Ahli to win. The price on the away victory reflects a strong probability in their favour and aligns with the statistical advantages and recent momentum shown in the data.