
AFC Champions League Elite action returns to Baghdad on 20 October as Al Shorta host Al Ittihad at Al‑Shaab Stadium in Round 3. Both sides arrive under pressure in the West section: Al Shorta sit with a solitary point from two matches while Al Ittihad are still hunting their first point after two defeats. On paper this looks like a classic continental fixture where home comfort and recent domestic form could be decisive — Al Shorta have been on a strong run domestically, while Al Ittihad’s continental campaign needs a lift after dropping points.
Al Shorta’s recent run reads encouragingly: a sequence heavily weighted with wins in the last ten matches, reflected in the provided form string that shows seven wins, two draws and a single defeat. That momentum is backed by attacking intent — their home statistics show an average of 69 attacks and a strikingly high dangerous‑attacks average of 56. While their shots numbers are modest (nine total shots with two on target in the sample), the quality of the chances appears solid and the team converted tight games recently, exemplified by a 1-0 away win in the Iraqi League on 4 October.
Al Ittihad, by contrast, carry mixed form with four wins, one draw and five losses in the last ten outings. Their shot volume looks healthier — 12 total with four on target — and they average 82 attacks, suggesting the visitors can sustain pressure. Yet the dangerous‑attacks metric is lower than the home side’s, implying Al Ittihad may generate more peripheral chances rather than consistently high‑quality opportunities. Their most recent outing ended 1-1 away to Al‑Fayha, and that match highlighted Moussa Diaby as a standout performer.
Head‑to‑head history is thin but noteworthy: the 2023 meeting in the Arab Club Championship saw Al Ittihad take a 2-1 away win in Baghdad. That result underlines the visitors’ ability to upset the hosts, but football is rarely decided by single data points. In group play both sides have scored once and conceded three goals so far, so this clash is likely to be tight; however Al Shorta’s home comfort and higher dangerous‑attack rate give them the edge in carving out the clearer openings.
Given the balance of domestic momentum, the venue advantage at Al‑Shaab Stadium and Al Shorta’s superior dangerous‑attacks figure, the most sensible market to back here is the 1X2. Al Shorta look the likeliest winner: they have been converting tight matches lately and should be able to make the most of home territory against an Al Ittihad side that creates volume but not always decisive chances. Suggested pick: 1 (Al Shorta win).
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