Prediction Alajuelense vs Cartaginés 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the Primera Division on 04/09/2025

Match overview and context

The Apertura round five fixture at Estadio Alejandro Morera Soto on 04/09/2025 pits Alajuelense against Cartaginés in what looks to be a tight, tactically focused contest. Both clubs sit level on 18 points after ten matches in the 2025/2026 Primera Division campaign, separated only by position — Cartaginés third and Alajuelense fourth — which underlines how marginal the difference is between the teams. Alajuelense bring the home advantage to Alajuela, a venue with a capacity of 17,895 that has seen them carve out a solid record this term. Recent form lists Alajuelense with a sequence containing five wins, three draws and two defeats across their last ten outings; Cartaginés returns a mirror image in results, also with five wins, three draws and two losses, so this will likely be decided by fine details rather than a clear superiority.

Recent form and momentum

Alajuelense arrive having shared the spoils twice late in September — a 2-2 draw with Puntarenas and a 0-0 stalemate at Guadalupe — sandwiched around important home victories against San Carlos and Municipal Liberia. The side has been productive in front of goal at times, totaling 11 league strikes and conceding six, and they show an attacking tilt: 126 total shots with a healthy proportion coming inside the box and 42 efforts on target. Cartaginés, meanwhile, have also been defensively reliable, conceding only four overall while matching Alajuelense’s 11 goals. They suffered a narrow 2-1 defeat to Deportivo Saprissa in their latest outing but had enjoyed a run of wins before that, including clean sheets away at San Carlos and a 2-0 home success over Herediano. Mauro Quiroga and Ronaldo Cisneros were noted as best performers for their sides in their last matches, highlighting individuals who have influenced recent outcomes.

What the numbers say

Statistically this should be a low-to-medium scoring affair. Both teams boast high clean-sheet totals — six for Alajuelense and seven for Cartaginés — and over-2.5 occurrences are modest: 30% for Alajuelense and 20% for Cartaginés. Cartaginés have conceded fewer overall, and their away goals conceded count equals Alajuelense’s tally when on the road, suggesting tight defensive setups. Alajuelense do generate more attacking supply — higher shot totals, more corners and greater dangerous attacks average — which gives them a marginal edge in territory and initiative, especially at home. Head-to-head has recently produced a 1-1 stalemate, reinforcing the expectation of a close game where chances may be at a premium.

Prediction and betting suggestion

Expect a cagey, competitive clash with both teams prioritizing structure over expansive risk. The balance of strong defensive records, multiple clean sheets and a low frequency of high-scoring games point toward a match that stays under the traditional high-scoring threshold.

Betting suggestion: Under 2.5 goals. This goal market best reflects the data — low over-2.5 percentages, solid clean-sheet numbers for both sides, and a recent H2H that produced a 1-1 draw — making Under 2.5 the preferred tip for this fixture.