Match preview
Alianza Lima return to Copa Libertadores action as overwhelming favourites against 2 de Mayo on 12/02/2026. Bookmakers have branded the Peruvian side heavy favourites at 1.40, reflecting a recent run that looks far healthier on paper: Alianza arrive after a convincing 2-1 win over Comerciantes Unidos and a string of wins that includes a 3-0 triumph over Inter Miami and a 3-2 victory at Colo-Colo earlier in January. The form ticker shows Alianza with six wins, one draw and three losses in their last ten, and that offensive pulse has been enough to keep momentum swinging in their favour heading into this first-round tie.
Recent meetings and momentum
Notably, the teams met only a week prior when 2 de Mayo secured a 1-0 victory over Alianza Lima on 05/02/2026 — a result that keeps this fixture intriguing despite the market tilt. 2 de Mayo’s own recent form reads more mixed: a draw with Cerro Porteño and that earlier 1-0 win are positive signs, but heavy defeats such as the 5-1 loss to Nacional Asunción underline inconsistency. Their form summary lists three wins, three draws and four losses across ten matches, so confidence will be tempered. In domestic action, standout performances from Jairo Vélez for Alianza and Ulises Coronel for 2 de Mayo were singled out in the teams’ most recent league games, showing individual sparks on both sides.
Tactical outlook and key data
Statistically this looks like a contest where Alianza will dominate possession and territory. The home side’s attacking averages show higher volumes of shots and dangerous attacks, while 2 de Mayo’s numbers indicate a team that can spring counters but struggles to control matches consistently. Both sides have registered low shots-on-target counts in recent data, suggesting tight finishing or solid defensive work leading to low-scoring possibilities. The head-to-head scoreline from the recent clash (1-0) also hints that goals may be at a premium if 2 de Mayo sets up compactly.
Prediction and betting tips
Given the market, recent form and the decisive bookmaker probability favouring the hosts, the clearest value lies on the 1X2 market backing Alianza Lima to win. The home side’s tempo, recent run of wins and the weight of expectation make them the sensible headline pick, even with the sting of their recent loss to the same opponent. For bettors looking to read up on how to pick markets and refine stake plans, a refresher on Soccer betting tips and the choice of markets is recommended, and for discipline around matchday decisions consider guidance on How to have emotional control when placing bets?.
Betting suggestion: 1X2 market — Alianza Lima to win. The bookmakers’ 1.40 price mirrors form and squad momentum; stake cautiously and consider smaller stake sizing given the upset potential shown by 2 de Mayo in their recent 1-0 meeting.
