Prediction Alianza Petrolera vs La Equidad 2025 – Betting Tips for the Liga BetPlay on 24/10/2025

Match preview and context

Alianza Petrolera returns to Valledupar with momentum to reassert itself in a crucial mid-table clash against a La Equidad side in freefall. The fixture at Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau on 24/10/2025 arrives with clear contrasts: Alianza sit 11th in the Clausura with 20 points from 16 matches, while La Equidad languish 20th with just 10 points from 15 outings. Bookmakers have made their view plain — the market prices a home win at around 1.50, reflecting confidence that Alianza will capitalise on home form and La Equidad’s alarming recent results.

Recent form and stat battle

Alianza Petrolera’s recent sequence shows mixed results but resilience: draws and wins sprinkled through the run with a 3-3 draw at Deportivo Pasto and a 3-1 success over Llaneros standing out. Their home numbers are notable — 25 goals scored at home against 14 conceded — suggesting a side that can both create and defend reasonably on familiar turf. La Equidad arrives with a worrying trend: five straight defeats in the latest reports, including heavy losses and low scoring returns (0-4 to Deportivo Cali, 0-3 to Santa Fe). Across their season La Equidad have scored just nine times while conceding 24, and their away defensive ledger is especially fragile: 36 goals conceded away points to recurring problems on the road.

The head-to-head also gives Alianza a psychological edge; earlier in 2025 they won away at La Equidad 2-0, a result that underlines the home side’s ability to impose themselves. Goal markets are not one-sided — both teams have featured in matches with goals, and over 2.5 has shown up in roughly 44–45% of matches for each — but the balance of evidence here is defensive solidity at Alianza’s ground versus La Equidad’s scorched run.

Tactical expectations and match narrative

Expect Alianza to push the tempo, probing a La Equidad defence that has leaked repeatedly this season. La Equidad’s recent outings have produced few answers in the final third; their solitary win in the latest ten matches highlights confidence and finishing issues. Alianza should control possession and create the better chances, while La Equidad will likely seek to frustrate early and attempt to hit on the break — a risky plan against a home side comfortable scoring at Armando Maestre Pavajeau.

Betting suggestion

Given the form lines, home/away goal tallies and the market odds, the cleanest value is on the 1X2 market. Back Alianza Petrolera to win. The home side’s healthier scoring record at their venue, superior league position and recent head-to-head success make them clear favourites against a La Equidad team in decline. For bettors who prefer an extra layer of caution, consider Alianza Petrolera to win with a single-goal margin as a realistic outcome; however, the primary recommendation is a straight home win in the 1X2 market.