Prediction Alianza Petrolera vs Santa Fe 2025 season – Betting Tips for the Copa Colombia on 28/08/2025

Clash in Barrancabermeja: atmosphere, form and history matter

Barrancabermeja will host an intriguing Copa Colombia tie at the Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata on 28 August 2025, and the storylines are already clear. Alianza Petrolera arrive off a confidence-boosting 3-2 victory at Unión Magdalena just days earlier, a performance that saw Carlos Lucumí earn plaudits as their best player in that outing. Santa Fe, conversely, are recovering from a 2-0 reverse to Fortaleza CEIF, a result that will have left a taste of urgency in their camp. The cup context — a knockout 8th Finals tie — lends extra weight to every decision and every turnover in midfield.

Recent form and the memory of May

On paper the two teams’ recent sequences tell different stories. Alianza’s patchwork of results shows a side capable of scoring and conceding in spurts; their last five outings include high-intensity affairs such as the 3-2 win and a 2-2 draw away at Fortaleza. Santa Fe’s last ten matches show more consistency in collecting results, but crucially their away output looks shaky in the dataset: Santa Fe’s away goals total sits at zero in the provided away-team metrics, indicating trouble finding the net when not at their own ground. The memory of the sides’ most recent duel is impossible to ignore — a 6-1 demolition by Alianza in May’s Liga BetPlay meeting. That scoreline will still resonate in Barrancabermeja and in the visitors’ dressing room.

Where the stats give an edge

Numbers give Alianza a tangible home advantage. At their venue they’ve registered seven goals while conceding three — a positive goal difference that suggests they are comfortable carving out chances in front of their supporters. Their shooting volume is significantly higher, with 49 total shots recorded in the sample compared with Santa Fe’s 17; Alianza’s greater shot flow should translate to sustained pressure and more opportunities inside the box. Santa Fe’s attacking metrics show a high “attacks average” and corners average, but the conversion into away goals has been absent in the provided figures. Clean sheets are shared in the data, yet Santa Fe’s recent defeat before this tie and Alianza’s momentum at home tilt the narrow edge to the hosts.

Prediction and betting suggestion

Expect a fiery cup tie in Barrancabermeja where Alianza Petrolera will look to seize the initiative early and build on the confidence of that 3-2 win. Santa Fe will not be easy to break down entirely, but the away scoring drought in the provided figures and the heavy H2H result from May point toward a game where Alianza can impose themselves.

Betting suggestion (market: 1X2) — Back Alianza Petrolera to win. Given the home scoring numbers, the recent emphatic H2H result, and Alianza’s momentum from their last outing, a home victory is the most consistent selection with the available data. Play with sensible stakes and consider the cup’s inherent unpredictability when sizing your stake.