Almere City fancied to control proceedings at Yanmar Stadion
There is an unmistakable buzz around Almere City as they prepare to host Helmond Sport in round 27 of the Eerste Divisie on 13/02/2026. The home side have climbed to fifth with a potent attack that has produced 53 goals in 25 matches, and their recent run—seven wins, one draw and two defeats in the last ten outings—gives them clear momentum. Playing at the compact but loud Yanmar Stadion, and with Wouter Wiersma appointed as referee, Almere arrive as bookmakers’ favorites with the home win trading around 1.48 and a probability implied at roughly 67.6%. Those numbers mirror what the form table suggests: a team comfortable scoring and generally in charge when playing at their ground.
Helmond Sport arrive with flashes of grit but inconsistency persists
Helmond Sport, sitting 16th and struggling for consistency, have shown glimpses—recently beating FC Den Bosch 2-0 and posting a gritty 0-0 away at De Graafschap—but their form reads as a patchwork of wins, draws and heavy defeats. The away record is particularly concerning: just eight goals scored on the road all season while conceding 24 away. The statistics point to a side that can be shut down by an organized home unit. Their defensive fragility in the league overall, 45 goals conceded in 26 matches, leaves them vulnerable against Almere’s sustained attacking pressure.
The earlier head-to-head in October delivered a narrow 2-1 victory for Helmond at home, a reminder that surprises can happen, but context matters: that was a different venue and Helmond’s stronger home BTTS numbers don’t translate into their away performances. Almere’s tally of 32 home goals and only 17 conceded suggests a team comfortable dictating tempo at Yanmar Stadion. Recent best-performers in last fixtures—Milan de Haan shining for Almere and Brian Koglin turning in a top-rated display for Helmond—add flavor, but the broader trends point firmly towards the hosts.
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Betting suggestion: Back Almere City to win (1X2). Bookmakers price the home victory at about 1.48 and the combination of Almere’s home scoring form, superior points haul, and Helmond’s poor away goals record makes the home win the clearest market to target in this clash.
