Match outlook: Aluminij seeking stability, Olimpija hunting momentum
The Športni Park Aluminij will be buzzing on 05/02/2026 when Aluminij host Olimpija in round 20 of the 1. SNL. This one has the feel of a clash between a home side desperately trying to arrest a skid and a visitor who arrives with clear momentum. Aluminij sit seventh with 25 points after 19 matches but their recent run is deeply concerning — a string of losses has left the Kidričevo crowd restless. Their winter friendlies and warm-up fixtures delivered more questions than answers, and a home record that shows 13 goals scored but 16 conceded at Športni Park underlines an era of frailty at the back.
Olimpija, fifth on the table with 28 points, bring a steadier profile. Their last outing was a 1-0 success over Mura, a disciplined display where Pedro Lucas Schwaizer stood out as the best-rated performer on the day. Olimpija’s attack and defensive balance is reflected in their overall shots and defensive metrics: they create more dangerous attacks and boast a superior total of shots and shots on target, allied to seven clean sheets this season — a significant advantage on the road.
Tactical battle and statistical edge
The numbers nudge us toward expectation of an Olimpija-controlled game. Aluminij’s tendency toward higher-scoring matches at home — with an over 2.5 rate north of 70% — means there is room for goals, yet Olimpija’s superior defensive record away (fewer goals conceded) suggests they are capable of keeping things tight while posing an attacking threat. The h2h from October finished 1-1, so this fixture hasn't been one-sided historically, but recent form and underlying shot profiles favor the visitors. Bookmakers agree: the latest moneyline prices put Olimpija as favorites at 1.65, with the draw at 3.70 and Aluminij a long shot at 4.70, reflecting about a 60% implied probability on the away win.
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Betting suggestion Olimpija to win (1X2) at 1.65 — Olimpija arrive with better form, superior shot and defensive metrics, and recent confidence under their belt; backing the away win offers the clearest value given the odds and available data.
