Prediction Alverca vs Tondela 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the Liga Portugal on 12/09/2025

Match outlook: two strugglers meet in Alverca do Ribatejo

There is a harsh poetry to this fixture at the Compacto Desportivo FC Alverca on 12/09/2025: two teams rooted to the foot of the Liga Portugal table collide with little margin for error. Alverca come into Round 5 occupying 16th place with one point from four matches, while Tondela sit just below them in 18th, also on a single point. Both clubs have been porous at the back so far this term, and that fragility promises a tense, open encounter under the floodlights in Alverca do Ribatejo.

Alverca’s recent sequence has been peppered with heavy defeats and a fighting draw; across the latest reported fixtures they fell 0-3 to Sporting Braga, lost narrowly 1-2 at home to Benfica after trailing 0-2 at half-time, and shared a 2-2 draw at Estrela Amadora earlier. Statistical snapshots underline their vulnerability: Alverca have conceded nine goals in four league outings while only finding the net four times. Home numbers are sobering — just one goal scored at home and five conceded — yet their matches are producing goals, with an over 2.5 rate of 100% shown in the supplied home metrics.

Tondela arrive with attacking threat but brittle defence

Tondela’s campaign mirrors Alverca’s woes. They have struggled to convert territorial superiority into points, with only two goals scored in the opening rounds and nine conceded in total. Away from home their goal return reads zero so far and an alarming six goals conceded in away fixtures. Despite that, Tondela are not shy of creating chances: they average more total shots and a higher attack metric than Alverca — 45 shots and 85.75 attacks average versus Alverca’s 35 shots and 67.75 attacks. Those figures tell of a side capable of manufacturing opportunities but unable to protect their own net.

The head-to-head from May suggests Alverca can get the better of Tondela; that Liga Portugal 2 encounter finished 2-1 in Alverca’s favour. Recent individual highlights include standout performances in those last fixtures — Davy Jean Carl Kamon Gui earning plaudits for Alverca against Benfica, while Ivan Cavaleiro impressed for Tondela in a 2-2 draw with Estoril.

Prediction and betting suggestion

Formally, both teams have defensive issues and their matches have tilted towards higher-scoring outcomes. The season-to-date metrics point to frequent over 2.5 goal finishes: Alverca’s home games show a 100% over 2.5 rate and Tondela’s matches show 75% in that column. Add to that the volume of shots and attacks registered by both sides and the recent scoresheet history, and the logical expectation is for an open game with chances at both ends.

Betting suggestion: Back the goals market — Over 2.5 goals. This selection aligns with both sides’ high goals-against records, the strong over 2.5 percentages in the supplied stats, and the attacking activity indicated by shot and attack averages.