Prediction América vs Puebla 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the Liga MX on 22/10/2025

Match preview: Estadio Azteca set for a one-sided affair?

Sunday’s clash at the Estadio Azteca looks likely to be a showcase for América’s season-long superiority over Puebla. The hosts arrive with a momentum-laden run visible in their recent form: a sequence heavy on victories and only occasional slips. América sit third in the Apertura table after 13 matches, boasting 27 points and a healthy goal difference that reflects an aggressive attacking identity — 27 goals scored to date — and a defence that has been relatively stingy, conceding 13. Their most recent outing ended in a narrow 2-1 defeat away to Cruz Azul, but that single reverse does little to mask a broader run that features seven wins in the last ten outings and bracketed by impressive home scoring figures. The atmosphere at the Azteca — capacity listed at 83,264 — will only amplify expectations for a home side that usually dictate the tempo.

Puebla, by contrast, arrive rooted to the foot of the table. Eighteenth position after 13 rounds, eight points and a leaky defensive record that reads 32 goals conceded underline the uphill battle they face. Their recent victory, a thrilling 4-3 win over Tijuana, hints at the occasional offensive spark but also underlines defensive vulnerabilities that América are well placed to exploit. Away statistics for Puebla are particularly worrying for their travelling fans: just three goals scored on the road across the campaign and 16 conceded. Those numbers make forecasting a clean defensive outing for the visitors optimistic at best.

Tactical and form analysis

The last head-to-head in February delivered a 2-1 success for América in Puebla’s stadium, a result that keeps a psychological edge with the capital side. América’s shot statistics suggest consistent territorial and attacking pressure: a season total approaching 190 shots with 73 on target, high averages of corners and dangerous attacks that suggest sustained threat from set plays and open play alike. Puebla’s numbers, conversely, point to fewer entries into the opposition box and lower dangerous-attack averages, which often translates into fewer chances created in hostile venues.

Referee Martín Molina Astorga will take charge on the night; with both sides showing similar averages for yellow cards this term, the encounter should flow with physical edges but not an avalanche of stoppages. América’s home clean sheets and defensive solidity should be enough to blunt Puebla’s occasional offensive flashes.

Betting suggestion

Given the data — markedly superior home form, goal production and dominance in attacking metrics for América, coupled with Puebla’s precarious away numbers and porous defence — the clearest market choice is the 1X2. Backing Home (América) to win is the recommended selection. The bookmaker’s current price of 1.32 reflects América’s strong favoritism and aligns with the underlying statistics that point to a likely home victory.