Match preview: Anderlecht look to keep Dender grounded at Lotto Park
Anderlecht return to Lotto Park on 25/01/2026 with the bookmakers and the table both nudging them into favourite territory. The Purple Whites sit fourth in the Pro League after 21 rounds, a position supported by a 10-5-6 record and a respectable 30 goals scored. Home form has been key: 18 of those goals came at Lotto Park and Anderlecht have posted eight clean sheets at home this season. Dender, rock-bottom at 16th with just 16 points from 21 games, will travel with confidence from a morale-boosting 1-0 win over Antwerp last time out, but their away numbers read harshly — seven defeats and only three wins overall, and 17 goals conceded on the road. The stage, capacity and atmosphere of Lotto Park in Brussels will matter; Anderlecht often use that energy to force the pace early.
Recent form and context
Anderlecht’s form line is a mixed bag, but weighted towards the positive: five wins in their latest ten with showings that alternate tight victories and sharper defeats. They were beaten 4-2 by Gent on 18 January, a game that exposed defensive fragility but also underlined attacking intent — Nilson Angulo being highlighted as Anderlecht’s standout performer in that clash. Dender arrive buoyed by Bruny Nsimba’s match-winning display against Antwerp, yet that spark hasn’t translated into consistent results across the campaign. Statistically, Anderlecht outgun Dender in volume — 311 total shots and 101 on target for Anderlecht versus Dender’s 219 total and 79 on target. Dangerously for the visitors, Dender have conceded 34 goals overall; Anderlecht have the firepower to punish mistakes.
What the numbers say and betting angle
Head-to-head last season saw Anderlecht beat Dender 2-0 away, and the market makes the home side a clear 1.50 favourite (66.67% implied probability). Both teams show a tendency for both-teams-to-score in their home and away respective samples — Anderlecht’s BTTS at home is 60% while Dender’s away BTTS sits even higher at 66.67% — suggesting chances of goals at both ends. However, Anderlecht’s superior shots, dangerous attacks average and home clean sheets point to them controlling the tempo and creating the clearer chances. For readers who want to refine their approach, consider reading focused analysis on market selection with Soccer betting tips and the choice of markets, or a strategic piece on risk management such as How and when to hedge in sports betting?
Betting suggestion: After weighing form, home advantage, head-to-head and market pricing, the recommended play is a straight 1X2 wager on Anderlecht to win. The home side’s 1.50 quote reflects strong value given their attacking volume, defensive clean-sheet record at home and Dender’s struggles on the road.
