Overview: Antalyaspor’s fragile home against an organised Samsunspor
Antalyaspor welcome Samsunspor to Antalya Stadyumu on 13/02/2026 in a fixture that feels like a crossroads for the hosts. Antalyaspor sit 14th with just 20 points from 21 games, and recent results underline a side that is struggling for consistency — their last ten-match sequence reads as a worrying sequence of losses, punctuated by only a single win and two draws. Home form has been brittle: they have conceded 24 goals at home while finding the net just 12 times on their own turf. The most recent reverse at Fatih Karagümrük underlined defensive frailties, and while Veysel Sarı was the standout performer in that defeat, the team’s overall numbers point toward a unit that is porous and reliant on moments rather than structure.
Samsunspor arrive in better nick and with a clearer profile. Seventh in the table with 30 points, they’ve accumulated steady returns on the road and impressed with attacking intent away from home — 15 goals scored away this season and a tidy away record. Samsunspor’s recent results include encouraging wins and, crucially, they twice beat Kasımpaşa and picked up a solid victory over Bodrum FK before being humbled by Trabzonspor. Goalkeeper Okan Kocuk earned praise as his side tried to weather that defeat, but Samsun’s mix of resilience and forward thrust makes them the more reliable option on paper.
Tactical edge and form battle
Looking at the underlying numbers, Samsunspor are more active in attack: they average about 92.6 total attacks per game versus Antalyaspor’s 74.9, and they create more dangerous situations too. Both teams have shown a tendency for games with goals; Antalyaspor’s home fixtures have produced both teams to score in 75% of matches, and Samsunspor’s away outings have a BTTS rate north of 58%. Earlier this season the pair met with Samsunspor coming away with a 2-1 win — a reminder that the visitors can both score and close out positive results on Antalyaspor’s patch.
The market reflects that balance. Bookmakers list Samsunspor as the favorite at 2.00, while the hosts are priced longer at 3.85 and the draw sits at 3.20. That pricing mirrors the narrative: Antalyaspor are under pressure at home while Samsunspor offer a pragmatic blend of offence and defensive solidity.
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Betting suggestion Samsunspor look the most likely side to take the points. Backing an away win on the 1X2 market at the quoted 2.00 represents a clear value angle given Antalyaspor’s defensive troubles at home, Samsunspor’s stronger attack and the head-to-head edge earlier this season.
