Prediction Argentina vs Venezuela 2026 – Betting Tips for the WC Qualification South America on 04/09/2025

Match preview

Argentina return to the Estadio Monumental Antonio Vespucio Liberti with all the trappings of a side in full control of their World Cup qualifying destiny. Sitting top of the table with 35 points from 16 matches, Argentina have built a campaign defined by efficient offense and a disciplined defence, scoring 28 times while conceding just nine. Their recent run reads like a side peaking at the right moment: a sequence that includes the comprehensive 4-1 victory over Brazil in March and steady wins away in Uruguay and Chile. The home record, with 17 goals scored and only four conceded, underlines the potency Argentina carry in front of their own supporters.

Venezuela arrive in Capital Federal occupying seventh place with 18 points and an uneven form line that has produced moments of grit and moments of frailty. They have won four, drawn six and lost six in the campaign, finding the net 15 times but shipping 19. Their away numbers are especially concerning: while they can score on the road — six away goals — they have conceded 17 away from home, a stat that screams vulnerability against a top-tier attack. The recent loss to Uruguay by 2-0 was a blunt reminder of defensive lapses, though their home victory over Bolivia earlier in June shows they can still produce results when the pieces fall into place.

Form and statistics

Looking beneath the headline results, Argentina’s underlying numbers paint a picture of dominance. They average 11.69 shots per game with 37.84% of those finding the target, and their shot conversion rate of 10.81 indicates clinical finishing when chances are created. Ten clean sheets in 16 matches are a statement of defensive organisation and a capacity to close down games once they lead. Venezuela, by contrast, manage fewer attacking actions — averaging 82.25 attacks and 31.88 dangerous attacks per game — and their shot conversion of 7.14 shows they struggle to turn possession into goals. A glaring split appears in away defensive records: Venezuela have conceded 17 goals on the road, a figure that should raise alarm bells against Argentina’s multi-pronged forward line.

Head-to-head history provides context: last meeting in October 2024 ended 1-1, a reminder that South American qualifiers rarely yield runaway victories and can be punctuated by tension and tight moments. Still, current forms and bookmakers’ assessments make the picture clear.

Betting suggestion

Bookmakers have priced Argentina as heavy favourites at 1.21 with a home win probability of 82.64%, while a draw is 6.00 and an away upset sits at 12.50. Given Argentina’s home strength, defensive stability and Venezuela’s porous away defence, the most logical market to target is the 1X2. Backing a home win for Argentina is the recommended play: the price reflects the underlying reality and offers the clearest value when weighing form, statistics and venue.