Prediction Arouca vs Casa Pia 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the Liga Portugal on 14/09/2025

Match context and what’s at stake

Arouca welcome Casa Pia to Estádio Municipal de Arouca on 14 September in a fixture that feels like a chance for the home side to consolidate their position after a mixed start to the season. Ricardo Baixinho will take charge of the match, staged on a modest 5,600-capacity ground where Arouca have shown attacking intent in recent weeks. This is a fifth-round clash in the Liga Portugal regular season and the table positions tell a clear story: Arouca sit eighth with five points from four matches, while Casa Pia are down in fourteenth with only three points. For Arouca, home advantage and momentum from strident attacking displays should give them confidence; Casa Pia arrive with work to do after three defeats in four.

Form, momentum and the numbers

Arouca’s recent results read like a team that can both hit the target and be vulnerable: high-scoring draws and solid wins pepper their last outings. Across their league matches this season they have netted seven times but conceded eleven, an indication that their matches often produce action at both ends. Their attacking data underlines that approach — more total shots and a higher shots-on-target tally than Casa Pia, coupled with an average of nearly 72 attacks per match. Casa Pia, by contrast, have struggled to turn pressure into goals; they have scored just twice in four league fixtures and suffered three defeats. Their shot numbers are respectable but the conversion into goals hasn’t followed, and the defensive frailties are exposed by their goals conceded tally.

Head-to-head history gives a sober reminder that these games can be tight — their recent meeting ended 0-0 — but current trajectories favour Arouca. Arouca have produced the more consistent offensive outputs lately (notable scorelines including 3-3 and 3-1), while Casa Pia’s recent results include heavy reversals against Nacional and Porto. Individual flashes came in the last round: Naïs Djouahra impressed for Arouca with a strong display in the 1-1 draw, and Jérémy Livolant stood out for Nacional against Casa Pia in their 2-0 win.

Prediction and reasoning

This looks like a home win on form and balance. Arouca are creating more chances and have shown they can score in bursts at home; Casa Pia have rarely found the net this season and have let in several goals. While the head-to-head 0-0 suggests caution, the recent attacking profiles point to Arouca being the side most likely to take three points on 14 September.

Betting suggestion: Back Arouca to win (1X2 market) — Arouca to win at 1.95. This selection is grounded in Arouca’s superior attacking output, home advantage and Casa Pia’s struggles to score and to stop goals.