Prediction Atlético Nacional vs Once Caldas 2025 – Betting Tips for the Copa Colombia on 22/10/2025

Match context and setting

The quarter-final tie at Estadio Atanasio Girardot in Medellín on 22/10/2025 pits a confident Atlético Nacional against a Once Caldas side coming off a wobble. Nacional will enjoy home comforts in a stadium that holds 44,739 fans, and recent meetings give the local crowd reason to believe: the teams met earlier this month in the Copa Colombia and Nacional left Palogrande with a 1-0 victory. That narrow success, combined with the hosts’ recent run, frames this as a match where momentum and defensive stability could decide the tie.

Form, recent results and momentum

Atlético Nacional arrive unbeaten in their last ten outings, a sequence showing six wins and four draws. Their recent string includes a 2-2 draw with Deportivo Pasto, a 2-1 win over Deportivo Cali and a 1-0 victory against Once Caldas on 10 October. Nacional’s form reads as a team that wins regularly while avoiding defeat — the kind of consistency that translates well into knockout football. Their last outing saw Dairon Asprilla turn in the best rating for the side, an attacking spark they can lean on.

Once Caldas, by contrast, have endured an uneven spell. They were beaten 2-0 by Llaneros on 19 October and took a heavy 1-5 defeat away to Independiente Medellín earlier in the month. While Once Caldas have shown they can score — a 4-0 win over Deportivo Pasto is recent evidence — their defensive frailties have been exposed. Luis Gómez was noted as their standout in the loss to Llaneros, but overall the side’s results suggest a vulnerability that Atlético Nacional will try to exploit.

Tactical edge and statistical snapshot

Statistically the hosts look solid. Atlético Nacional’s home metrics show four clean sheets and a goals-conceded at home figure of zero in the sample available, underlining a compact defensive setup. They average an impressive number of attacks and shots overall, pointing to a side that can dominate territory and create chances. Once Caldas have decent attacking numbers but have been leakier at times, with away form that includes costly defeats. The head-to-head recent meeting was low-scoring and decided by a single goal, and that pattern could repeat with Nacional’s defense on top at home.

Odds and market read

Bookmakers make Atlético Nacional clear favourites, with a home-win price around 1.59 (implied probability ~62.9%). The draw and away prices are notably longer, reflecting the gap in form and home advantage. Given the data — the earlier 1-0 H2H result, Nacional’s unbeaten run and multiple clean sheets at home contrasted with Once Caldas’ recent losses — the market pricing feels justified.

Betting suggestion Based on form, recent head-to-head and defensive stability at Estadio Atanasio Girardot, the best single-market recommendation is a 1X2 selection: back Atlético Nacional to win. The home side’s consistency and recent 1-0 success over Once Caldas make them the most likely outcome in this quarter-final clash.