Prediction Austria vs San Marino 2026 – Betting Tips for the WC Qualification Europe on 09/10/2025

Match overview: Austria ready to roll at Ernst-Happel

Austria arrive at the Ernst-Happel-Stadion sitting imperiously at the top of their qualification group and carrying momentum that makes this fixture feel more like a showcase than a contest. The hosts boast a perfect record in the group stage so far — four matches, four wins, nine goals scored and only two conceded — and their recent form across competitions reads like a mission statement: a string of victories interrupted by very little. The home crowd in Wien, in a stadium that holds over 50,000, will expect nothing less than another dominant performance against a San Marino side that has struggled to find any consistency.

San Marino travel in search of a minor miracle. The numbers are stark: five matches played in the group, zero points, just a solitary goal and a whopping 18 conceded. Their recent results underline the gulf in class — heavy defeats and a defence that has been repeatedly exposed. The pair met earlier in the campaign, and the H2H is fresh in the memory: Austria dismantled San Marino 4-0 on June 10, a result that reinforces how one-sided this matchup has been historically in this cycle.

Statistical edge: shots, danger and the finishing touch

Walk through the match statistics and the picture becomes even clearer. Austria are an offensive juggernaut in these qualifiers: 57 total shots with 30 on target, an average of 14.25 shots per game and a frighteningly high attacks average of 123. Their dangerous attacks average sits at 58, reflecting sustained pressure and quality in the final third. San Marino, by contrast, manage just 4.6 shots on average and only six shots on target across their fixtures, with dangerous attacks averaging 15. The defensive frailty of San Marino — 18 goals conceded in five matches — meshes badly against Austria’s attacking output.

Austria’s recent victory over Bosnia and Herzegovina, where Konrad Laimer earned the best-player billing, shows this side can grind out results in different scenarios and still deliver on the scoreboard. San Marino’s form line reads predominantly losses, with their only positive results coming outside of competitive group play. Given the scale of the mismatch, the momentum, and the detailed shot and attack metrics, the most probable story for Friday night is a dominant home display with multiple goals.

Betting suggestion: Based on the overwhelming statistical and form advantage for Austria and the history of high-scoring meetings in this pairing, the recommended market is the goal market: back Over 2.5 goals. The data — heavy shot volume and dangerous attacks for Austria combined with San Marino’s chronic concession rate — point to a match likely to produce three or more goals.