Prediction Auxerre vs Monaco 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the Ligue 1 on 13/09/2025

Form and context heading into Auxerre vs Monaco

Auxerre welcome Monaco to the Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps on 13 September in a fixture that already carries an edge of expectation. The home side sit 14th after three league rounds, having collected just three points from one win and two defeats. Recent results tell a mixed story: a home victory over Lorient was followed by away defeats at Nice and Nantes, and their broader form over ten matches reads as inconsistency with three wins, one draw and six losses. Home statistics for Auxerre point to a side that presses and fires chances — 33 total shots across their matches and a healthy shots-on-target figure — but they have only one clean sheet and two losses in the opening league fixtures. That imbalance underlines a team capable of creating but not always converting or securing results.

Monaco travel north sitting fourth and with more persuasive numbers. Two wins and a loss from three matches have produced six goals scored and a decent attacking output. Their form string shows more victories than defeats over the previous ten games, with five wins, two draws and three defeats overall. Monaco’s attacking profile stands out: 31 total shots with 22 inside the box and a superior dangerous attacks average, suggesting they are more incisive in the final third. Recent domestic victories — including a 3-2 win over Strasbourg — show the visitors can both score and respond under pressure. Lamine Camara’s strong match rating last time out looks like a positive indicator for Monaco’s forward impetus; meanwhile Auxerre’s Marvin Senaya was the standout in their last outing despite the defeat.

Tactical match-up and match dynamics

The numbers hint at what could be an open contest. Monaco average more attacks and dangerous attacks than Auxerre, with 107 attacks and almost 50 dangerous attacks per match compared to Auxerre’s roughly 100 attacks and 36 dangerous actions. That margin in chance creation gives Monaco the edge in turning pressure into goals. Auxerre’s corners average and shots inside the box suggest they can trouble Monaco, particularly at home, but their defensive record has been leaky away from Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps and they conceded four goals across the early rounds. Meanwhile Monaco have shown a greater tendency for higher-scoring affairs — their fixtures have produced over 2.5 goals more frequently — and the head-to-head memory from earlier this year still stings: a 4-2 win for Monaco underlines their capacity to dominate and score in clusters.

Bookmakers, form and prediction

Bookmakers make Monaco the clear favorite with an away price of 1.63 and an implied probability north of 60 percent. The draw is priced around 4.10, while Auxerre are outsiders at roughly 4.65. Those odds align with the statistical narrative: Monaco create more chances, have been more clinical in recent league games, and carry momentum from a home victory over Strasbourg. Auxerre will lean on home comforts and the energy of their attacking numbers, but the gulf in sustained attacking threat and dangerous attacks suggests Monaco are likelier to take all three points.

Prediction: Monaco to win, with a realistic finishing line of a 2-1 score in favor of the visitors — an entertaining affair with chances at both ends but the visitors edging it.

Betting suggestion

Recommended market — 1X2: Back Monaco to win at 1.63. The combination of Monaco’s superior attacking metrics, recent form, a decisive head-to-head earlier in the year and the bookmaker probability make the away win the most data-supported single-market play. Bet responsibly and consider a moderate stake given Ligue 1’s capacity for surprises.