Prediction Belgrano vs San Martín San Juan 2025 – Betting Tips for the Liga Profesional de Fútbol on 11/09/2025

Match context and form analysis

Belgrano return to Estadio Julio César Villagra on 11/09/2025 buoyed by the weight of home advantage and a steadier recent run of results than their visitors. The cordobeses sit 12th in the group after seven matches, collecting eight points from two wins, two draws and three defeats. Their last five fixtures contain a mixture of outcomes — notable wins over Banfield and Independiente are offset by a couple of stumbles, including a 2-1 reverse against Defensa y Justicia on 31 August. That defeat showed Belgrano can be vulnerable, but it also followed a clean sheet draw at Aldosivi and suggests they are competitive on home soil where shots and attacking intent have been relatively healthy.

San Martín San Juan arrive with identical points (eight) but a less convincing trajectory. The San Juan side have squeezed two wins from seven games but their form string reads with more defeats than their hosts; their most recent outing ended in a 2-0 loss to River Plate. Across the campaign San Martín have struggled to find consistent scoring rhythm, tallying five goals while conceding seven. Their away record has been patchy and the last meeting between these sides — a March clash in the 1st Phase that finished 3-1 to San Martín at home — proves they can hurt Belgrano, but that result came in a different setting.

Key statistical pointers

Numbers tell an intriguing story. Bookmakers make Belgrano the favorites at around 2.05 with a near 49% implied probability, while the draw sits at 2.88 and the away win at 4.20. Belgrano’s attacking metrics show plenty of volume — over 250 total shots and solid shots on target — and a higher frequency of both-teams-to-score occurrences at home (BTTS in 60% of their matches). San Martín’s offensive output is lower: fewer goals and a lower Over 2.5 threshold across their matches, indicating many tight contests. Both sides have conceded seven goals in the group, which hints at balanced defensive frailties rather than a clear dominance.

Match outlook and prediction

Expect a competitive tussle, but the scales tip subtly in Belgrano’s favor. Home comfort, better recent consistency, and a bookmaker price offering decent value for the hosts point toward a Belgrano victory or at least a result where they control much of the proceedings. San Martín are capable of counter-punching — their earlier 3-1 success over Belgrano is a reminder — but away vulnerabilities and their recent reverse to River Plate reduce the likelihood of an upset at the Julio César Villagra.

Betting suggestion: 1X2 — Belgrano to win (Home) at 2.05. This selection aligns with the market consensus, home form advantage and the statistical edge in attacking activity; it represents the clearest, data-backed betting angle from the available markets.