Prediction Benfica vs Arouca 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the Liga Portugal on 25/10/2025

Match overview

Benfica welcome Arouca to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica on 25 October 2025 in what shapes up as a clear-home advantage fixture in round 9 of the Liga Portugal regular season. The data paints Benfica as heavy favorites: the market gives the hosts a 1.17 quote and an implied probability of 85.47%, reflecting dominant underlying numbers — Benfica average 113.88 attacks and 60.63 dangerous attacks per game, far outstripping Arouca’s 70.63 attacks and 26.75 dangerous attacks. Benfica sit third in the table with 18 points from eight matches, undefeated in the league records shown, while Arouca are down in 11th with nine points and a markedly leaking defence.

Recent form and context

Benfica arrive off mixed results in a busy spell: a chastening 3-0 Champions League defeat to Newcastle United on 21 October — a match where the opposition goalkeeper Anatoliy Trubin was singled out as the best-rated player — but also league wins over Chaves and Gil Vicente, and draws with Porto. Their recent string mixes wins, draws and losses, but home statistics underline control: five wins, zero losses at home in the available sample, seven goals scored at home and only three conceded. Arouca’s latest outings show grit in cup and league: a morale-boosting 2-1 victory at Portimonense in the Taça de Portugal and league wins against Nacional, but defensive fragility is evident — 19 goals conceded in league play and no clean sheets recorded in the away team sample. Arouca’s matches lean toward higher totals: their over 2.5 frequency sits at 62.5%.

Tactical matchup and key numbers

Numerically Benfica dominate chances and shots: 112 total shots with 42 on target compared to Arouca’s 78 and 26 on target. Benfica create nearly double the dangerous situations, and their clean-sheet record at home (four clean sheets in the dataset) contrasts with Arouca’s inability to keep opponents out. The head-to-head from April produced an entertaining 2-2 draw, showing Arouca can find the net and frustrate the big boys on occasion, but the scale of disparity in attack and chance creation this season suggests the hosts should control the narrative at Luz.

Prediction and betting tip

Given the overwhelming bookmaker support for Benfica, the superior attacking metrics and the gulf in defensive stability, the clearest and most data-backed play is the 1X2 market: back Benfica to win. The odds on Benfica (1.17) reflect a high-probability outcome in the supplied market data (85.47% implied). Expect Benfica to start on the front foot, dominate territory and create the better opportunities; Arouca may nick a goal here or there as past encounters show, but the weight of form and underlying numbers favors a home victory.

Betting suggestion: 1X2 — Benfica to win. Confidence: high based on the provided statistics and market pricing.