Prediction Benfica vs Tondela 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the Liga Portugal on 23/08/2025

Match preview

Benfica returns to the Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica with momentum and a target: to stamp their authority on the early Liga Portugal calendar. The home side arrive off the back of an encouraging run of results, including a scoreless draw away in the Champions League play-offs against Fenerbahçe on August 20 and a string of wins in pre-season and friendlies. Confidence is palpable around the Luz; the stadium’s 64,642 capacity and Benfica’s dominant attacking numbers underline why they are overwhelming favorites.

Tondela, by contrast, have been fighting an uphill battle. Their opening league fixtures have produced two defeats, with zero goals scored in those matches and four conceded. Recent domestic outings saw them fall to Famalicão and Sporting Braga, results that left them rooted low in the standings and searching for answers. Away trips to a fervent Benfica crowd will be a stern test for a side that has yet to find consistent form this campaign.

Form and momentum

Benfica’s recent summary paints a team in full flow: seven wins and three draws in their latest sequence, an attacking unit generating an average of 93 attacks per match and keeping clean sheets when it matters. Their Champions League draw showed resilience on the road and, crucially, preserved defensive solidity. Tondela’s form chart reveals more volatility: five wins and four losses across a broader sample, but at the top-flight return they have been unable to translate attacking efforts into goals, and their away defensive record in the early fixtures leaves them vulnerable.

Tactical edge and match-up

Statistically Benfica dominate the contest. The home side’s shot profile shows concentration inside the box and consistent pressure, while Tondela’s metrics indicate fewer corners and a higher concession rate. Head-to-head history, while limited in the dataset, recalls a convincing Benfica victory in their last recorded meeting, a 3-1 win when Tondela hosted—the kind of result that reinforces the gulf between the sides when Benfica are firing.

Prediction

Given the form lines, the attacking and defensive statistics and the context of a high-stakes home fixture for Benfica, the expectation is clear: Benfica should control the tempo, dominate territory and create the decisive chances. Tondela will likely sit deeper and try to hit on the break, but their early-season struggles in front of goal make an upset improbable.

Betting suggestion

Betting market: 1X2. Recommended pick: Benfica to win. The match odds and underlying data point strongly toward a home victory, making the 1 (home win) the best single-market selection for this fixture.