Prediction Benin vs Lesotho 2026 – Betting Tips for the CAF World Cup Qualifiers on 09/09/2025

Preview: Benin look to consolidate at home as Lesotho search for momentum

Benin return to Abidjan buoyed by a narrow 1-0 victory over Zimbabwe, a result that reinforced their second-place position in Group Stage standings. The West Africans have been inconsistent across the campaign but show enough attacking intent — seven goals in seven matches — and defensive solidity at home to fancy their chances on Tuesday. Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny offers a big-stage atmosphere with a 50,000 capacity and Benin will want to use the home crowd to press an opponent who has struggled for goals away from home.

Lesotho arrive with a more fragile recent record, suffering a 3-0 defeat to South Africa in their latest outing and heavy losses earlier in the window to Namibia and Angola. Their road record is skewed: no home goals this competition but four goals scored away in the group overall, yet conceding eight across seven matches highlights vulnerability at the back. Confidence will be a concern after several heavy scorelines, and while the side can snatch results — as seen in a 1-0 victory over Malawi earlier in the campaign — their form suggests caution.

Tactical expectations and form lines

Benin’s match statistics paint a picture of a team that creates chances and presses higher up the pitch. They produce more dangerous attacks and average more shots per game than Lesotho, which should translate into sustained pressure, particularly on set pieces and entries into the box. Steve Mounié was noted as Benin’s best performer in their last win, and the team’s mix of clean sheets and grinding victories indicates a side capable of controlling tempo without exploding into high-scoring affairs.

Lesotho’s approach has been more conservative and, at times, porous. Their defensive record and the frequency of heavy defeats suggest they are likely to attempt compact defending and look for transitions. However, the visitors’ inability to create consistent clear-cut chances — fewer shots inside the box and a lower dangerous attacks average — makes scoring in Abidjan a stiff ask.

Prediction and betting suggestion

Given Benin’s home advantage, superior group standing and recent positive result, paired with Lesotho’s fragile away form and defensive lapses, the most sensible single-market play is a Benin victory on the 1X2 market. The home side look the likeliest to take three points without the tie turning into an open, high-scoring affair; expect a controlled Benin win rather than a goal-fest. Betting suggestion: Back Benin to win (1).