Ribeirão Preto will host a crucial scrap at Estádio Santa Cruz as Botafogo SP attempt to arrest a worrying slide and keep faint hopes of climbing out of the relegation zone alive against Paysandu. Both sides arrive under pressure: Botafogo SP sit 18th with 29 points after 30 matches, while Paysandu occupy 20th with 26 points. The last few weeks have not been kind to either dressing room. Botafogo SP’s recent run reads as a string of frustration with more defeats than victories — a campaign that features narrow losses and an inability to convert pressure into consistent results. Paysandu’s sequence is no less concerning; their form shows only one victory in the last ten and a procession of draws and losses that have left them searching for answers.
The most recent meetings offer mixed signals. In June, Paysandu edged Botafogo SP 1-0 in this same Serie B season, proving that Botafogo can be beaten on home soil when Paysandu are organised and clinical. Botafogo SP’s last outing ended in a 2-0 reverse to Coritiba, where Wesley Dias was the standout performer for the visitors, and Paysandu drew 1-1 with Cuiabá in their last game with Matheus Nogueira earning praise for his display. Those results underline the fragile momentum on both sides: Botafogo SP showing flashes but lacking consistency, Paysandu capable of striking but too often failing to see games out.
Statistically this is a tight contest. Botafogo SP have scored 25 and conceded 46 across the campaign while Paysandu have a slightly better goals scored tally at 26 but have shipped 36. Both teams have recorded six clean sheets, which tells the story of a season punctuated by defensive lapses and occasional shutouts. Botafogo’s home numbers show more matches with both teams scoring (BTTS home 58.33%), while Paysandu’s matches have produced fewer high-scoring affairs overall, with their over 2.5 percentage lower at 30%.
Paysandu show a greater volume of attempts overall — higher shot totals and more corners — suggesting they can create chances, but their inconsistent finishing combined with defensive frailty has cost them. The referee, André Luis Skettino Policarpo Bento, will oversee a meeting between two hungry sides who know points are priceless at this stage.
The blend of poor form, conservative defensive records and low over-2.5 frequencies points to a cagey, low-scoring affair. Expect hard-fought midfield battles, limited clear-cut chances and a match that could be decided by a moment of individual quality or a set-piece.
Prediction and betting suggestion: Under 2.5 goals.
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