Prediction Boulogne vs Guingamp 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for Ligue 2 on 17/10/2025

Match context and storyline

Boulogne welcome Guingamp to the Stade de la Libération on October 17 in what promises to be an entertaining Ligue 2 clash. The home side sit precariously in 16th after nine matches, accumulating just nine points from three wins and six defeats. Their season has been a roller-coaster of narrow margins — a hard-fought 1-0 victory at Amiens most recently saw Adrien Pinot pick up the match’s best rating — but overall Boulogne have struggled to find consistent firepower, with only seven goals scored across nine games. Still, at home they have shown bite, keeping two clean sheets and producing sporadic attacking flashes that have resulted in positive results against the odds.

Guingamp arrive in far steadier form and higher up the table in sixth, on 14 points. Their last five results read like a mixed bag of resilience and lapses: three wins, a draw and a heavy 5-2 reverse at Troyes. Guingamp’s offensive numbers are eye-catching for this level — 16 goals in nine matches — but they have been porous at the back, shipping 19. That combination of attacking potency and defensive vulnerability makes them a dangerous opponent: capable of lighting up the scoreboard but also prone to high-scoring affairs.

Tactical edge, form and atmosphere

From the statistics on offer, this fixture leans toward open football. Guingamp average more corners and attacks, and boast a superior shots-on-target figure overall, while Boulogne’s numbers suggest a side that can spring surprises but lacks consistency in finishing. The H2H history is thin and dated — the only recorded meeting here ended 1-1 back in 2012 — but recent sample matches for both teams point to games that frequently produce goals. Boulogne’s home matches have seen BTTS in two out of three recent fixtures, and Guingamp’s season shows a high prevalence of over 2.5 goal games, with over 2.5 in 77.78% of their outings. The Stade de la Libération, with a modest capacity just over 15,000, should provide an energetic home crowd but not the kind of fortress that prevents Guingamp from playing their natural, attacking game.

Prediction and betting rationale

Expect an open encounter with chances at both ends. Boulogne will look to defend compactly and hit on the break, while Guingamp should push to exploit defensive gaps and create opportunities. The betting market reflects the balance: match odds are almost level, with the away win at 2.62, home 2.65 and the draw 3.20. Given Guingamp’s scoring form and Boulogne’s tendency to be involved in matches with goals, the clearest angle is the goal market rather than a straight 1X2 pick.

Betting suggestion: Over 2.5 goals (goal market). This selection leans on Guingamp’s high over-2.5 rate (77.78%), both teams’ propensity to concede and recent scorelines, and the likelihood of an open, attacking game in Boulogne.