Prediction Bulgaria vs Georgia 2026 – Betting Tips for the WC Qualification Europe on 18/11/2025

Match context and form

Bulgaria welcome Georgia to Stadion Vasil Levski in Karlovo for a Group Stage clash that feels like a must-win for pride rather than points. The home side have been in freefall across this qualifying campaign: five group games, zero points, a solitary goal scored and 18 conceded. Recent results read like a cautionary tale — heavy defeats to Spain and Turkey and a run of results that leaves Bulgaria rooted to the bottom of the table. Their defensive numbers are brutal: nine goals conceded at home alone, and zero clean sheets. The mood will be sombre in front of a stadium capable of more than 43,000, yet the formbook suggests Bulgaria are operating on fumes.

Georgia arrive with marginally better credentials. They sit third in the group with three points, and while their campaign has included heavy losses to the top sides, they have also shown they can score — six goals in five games — and they stunned Bulgaria 3-0 in September. Georgia’s attacking metrics are superior: more shots, more dangerous attacks and a higher average for corners. Their away record isn’t pristine — goals conceded away are a concern — but they have shown enough bite to be respected on the road. Recent meetings and campaign trends point to Georgia as the more coherent unit on match day.

What the numbers tell us

Tactically this looks like a contest that could open up. Both teams’ matches have tended to produce goals: the over 2.5 market has appeared frequently across their fixtures, with an 80% incidence noted in the data available for both sides. Bulgaria’s porous defence combined with Georgia’s willingness to attack away from home creates a scenario where scoring chances will be plentiful. The head-to-head is also a warning sign for the hosts — Georgia’s 3-0 victory earlier in the campaign wasn’t a fluke and underlines Bulgaria’s vulnerability.

How to approach your bet

If you’re leaning into the goal markets, timing and market selection matter — learn when to act by reading guidance on the right time to place bets on goal markets. For a broader analytical approach to finding value in matches like this, consider principles laid out in factors to be observed when analyzing sports betting — they map closely to the trends we see here.

Betting suggestion

Based on the head-to-head history, attacking metrics and Bulgaria’s alarming defensive form, the best single selection is the goal market: back Over 2.5 goals. The data points to open, high-scoring affairs for both sides and Georgia’s earlier 3-0 win over Bulgaria reinforces the probability of multiple goals. Stake responsibly and consider a conservative unit given the volatility of qualifier fixtures.