Prediction Bulgaria vs Turkey 2026 – Betting Tips for the WC Qualification Europe on 11/10/2025

Setting the scene in Karlovo

The match at Stadion Vasil Levski in Karlovo on October 11, 2025, carries heavy implications for both teams as they navigate the early twists of the 2026 World Cup European qualifying group. Bulgaria arrive under pressure after a run of results that has seen them fail to pick up a point in group play, shipping six goals and scoring none. Their recent string of heavy defeats — including a 3-0 reverse to Georgia and successive three- and four-goal drubbings by Spain and Greece earlier this year — has left confidence fragile, and Ilia Gruev’s performance in the Georgia loss was a rare bright spot in an otherwise bleak picture.

Turkey travel as the clear favorite. Their group form shows three goals already scored in two matches, and while their defensive record has vulnerabilities — eight conceded in group action — their domestic and international form in recent friendlies and qualifiers paints a more optimistic picture. The away side boasts superior attacking metrics: significantly higher averages for total shots, shots on target and dangerous attacks. Orkun Kökçü was noted as Turkey’s best performer in their last qualifier, and the team’s general ability to manufacture chances stands in stark contrast to Bulgaria’s struggle to create.

Form, stats and the narrative that matters

Numbers amplify the narrative: Bulgaria’s attack has dried up with zero group goals and a low shots average, while Turkey’s offensive machine has been more active, producing a higher volume of attempts and corners. Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in their recent qualifiers, which suggests matches involving these sides have been open and offered scoring opportunities for both camps, but the fuller picture leans toward Turkey’s capacity to control play and convert pressure into goals. The bookmakers mirror that assessment emphatically; the market has priced Turkey as the overwhelming favorite with an implied probability north of 80 percent.

For Bulgaria the urgency will be palpable — at home they must try to wrestle control, but recent defensive frailties and a limited goalscorer output make that uphill. Turkey, conversely, can approach this tie with the confidence of a side used to turning attacks into risks for the opposition, even if they are not completely watertight at the back.

Betting suggestion

Based strictly on the form lines, team statistics and the market pricing available, the clearest and highest-value single pick is on the 1X2 market: back Turkey to win. The bookmakers have them at 1.24 (implied probability ~80.65%), and the data — superior attacking averages, recent wins and a more consistent run of form — supports a confident away victory in Karlovo.