Prediction Burnley vs Chelsea 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the Premier League on 22/11/2025

Match overview and recent form

Turf Moor will host an intriguing Premier League encounter on 22/11/2025 as Burnley welcome Chelsea in round 12. The Clarets sit low in the table at 17th with 10 points from 11 games and a worrying goals-against tally of 22, while Chelsea look comfortable in third with 20 points and a much healthier goal difference. Peter Bankes takes the whistle in what should be a lively afternoon in Burnley, where capacity and atmosphere can often lift the home side, but recent results paint a clear picture: Burnley have won just three of their league matches and their form shows seven losses from the last ten competitive outings, whereas Chelsea arrive with momentum—seven wins from their last ten and emphatic recent victories including a 3-0 away success against Wolverhampton Wanderers.

Burnley’s home numbers reveal a team that can threaten but also concedes heavily; only two clean sheets at Turf Moor and a modest corners average underline a unit that struggles to control games against higher-quality opposition. Chelsea, by contrast, bring attacking firepower reflected in 21 goals so far and a strong shots profile—158 total shots and 62 on target across the season—evidence of sustained pressure in the final third. The H2H history is recent enough to be relevant: a 2-2 draw last season suggests Burnley can be resilient, but the statistical momentum favors the Blues.

Tactical and statistical edge

Statistically the match leans heavily towards an away victory. Chelsea’s over-2.5 percentage is a striking 72.73%, while Burnley’s is a modest 54.55% — both sides have shown they can contribute to open games, but Chelsea’s higher dangerous attacks average (57.73) versus Burnley’s 32.82 is a telling indicator of where the decisive moments are likely to come from. Chelsea’s defensive solidity away from home, conceding only five goals in away fixtures, will be put to the test at Turf Moor, yet their clean sheet count of five and ability to turn matches into multi-goal affairs makes them the clear favorites.

What to expect is a Chelsea side that controls territory and creates chances, with Burnley attempting to exploit set-piece moments and counter opportunities. The referee and venue could add spice, but the gap in form and attacking numbers is hard to ignore.

Betting suggestion

Given the data and the market prices, the strongest single pick is a Chelsea win in the 1X2 market. The bookmaker price of 1.49 reflects a 67% implied probability and aligns with Chelsea’s superior form, goal output, and recent convincing results — notably Enzo Fernández’s man-of-the-match performance in their last 3-0 win. For readers looking to refine approach and market choice, consider reading further on Soccer betting tips and the choice of markets and refreshing knowledge of How the betting odds work in sports betting before staking.