Prediction Burnley vs Derby County 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the Carabao Cup on 26/08/2025

Match context and what's at stake

Burnley welcome Derby County to Turf Moor on 26/08/2025 in the Carabao Cup second round, with referee Andrew Kitchen in charge. Cup nights at Turf Moor carry a special charge and Burnley will be keen to build momentum after a solid domestic return: a 2-0 win over Sunderland last time out hinted at a team in control when it matters. Derby arrive from a Championship draw with Bristol City and will be looking to upset the home favourites, but the momentum and the bookmakers are clearly on Burnley’s side.

Form, recent results and the mood around both camps

Burnley’s recent run reads like a team that has found a reliable rhythm: eight wins, one draw and a solitary defeat across their last ten outings, with convincing scorelines peppered through the sequence. Their most recent victory, the 2-0 success over Sunderland, produced the standout performance of the night from Jaidon Anthony (best player rating 8.11), underlining that Burnley can deliver on both ends of the pitch.

Derby County’s form is a far more mixed picture. In their last ten they have two wins, five draws and three defeats. A 1-1 stalemate with Bristol City was their latest, where Carlton Morris earned a solid game rating (7.57), but the Rams have also been involved in error-prone, high-scoring matches recently — notably conceding five in a 3-5 reverse against Coventry. That volatility suggests Derby can produce entertaining matches, but also that their defensive base is shakier than Burnley’s current unit.

Tactical outlook and statistical pointers

Turf Moor’s atmosphere and a home crowd capacity of 22,546 are non-trivial advantages in a one-off cup tie. Burnley head into this tie with confidence, recent clean sheets and the kind of consistency managers crave in knockout football. Derby’s away numbers show pockets of attacking intent — an average of four shots and some expected danger on transitions — but their defensive record in recent fixtures has been more porous than Burnley’s, which could be decisive in a short evening contest.

Head-to-head history is sparse in the data provided but their most recent meeting ended 0-0 in the Championship; cup football, however, often swings on momentum and quality on the night. The market makes the position clear: Burnley are heavy favourites at 1.50, with the draw priced around 4.33 and Derby long at 6.00.

Betting suggestion

Based on current form, home advantage, recent performances and the market, the most sensible single-market play is a 1X2 selection backing Burnley to win. The odds of 1.50 reflect a strong probability that the Clarets will take the tie at Turf Moor. Consider a conservative stake given cup unpredictability, but the data points — Burnley’s strong run, home setting and Derby’s inconsistent defence — all point toward a home victory as the best value call for this fixture.