Preview: Turf Moor showdown shapes as Fulham edge favourite
Burnley welcome Fulham to Turf Moor on 13 December in a fixture that feels like an away day for the visitors despite the home crowd. Burnley sit perilously in 19th with ten points from 15 matches, enduring a run that reads badly on form and confidence — recent defeats to Newcastle, Crystal Palace and Brentford underline a side short on momentum. Fulham, while hardly cruising, are in a steadier place at 15th with 17 points and brighter attacking numbers. The bookmakers mirror that reality: Fulham are priced at 1.93 (implied probability 51.81%), the draw 3.40, and Burnley long at 4.00.
Statistically Fulham have the sharper profile. They generate more shots (176 vs Burnley’s 124) and more dangerous attacks (47.2 to 34.53), which matters over 90 minutes at Turf Moor where Burnley’s home goal return has been meagre — just five goals scored at home this season. Fulham’s away scoring balance (6 away goals scored, 14 conceded) is imperfect, but they arrive with greater attacking intent and more clinical recent performances, including a narrow win at Tottenham and a high-scoring loss to Manchester City that nevertheless showed their willingness to press forward.
Form, patterns and what to expect
Burnley’s recent run is stark: a sequence heavy on losses and only two wins inside the last ten games reported. Their defence has leaked 30 goals in total, and home matches haven’t been kind — just two clean sheets and low goals-for at Turf Moor. Fulham’s form is patchy too, with three wins and seven losses in their last ten, but they are the more likely side to create sustained chances and convert them. The head-to-head memory of a 2-2 draw from 2024 hints at a competitive history, but current momentum leans to the visitors.
On goals markets, both sides show over/under trends around the middle ground with over 2.5 flagged in roughly half of fixtures for both teams. Burnley’s home matches show a surprisingly low BTTS percentage at 12.5%, while Fulham’s away matches present a more balanced BTTS share of 55.56% — suggesting Fulham-friendly games are likelier to see both teams involved than Burnley’s recent home fixtures.
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Betting suggestion
Based on form, attacking volume and bookmaker pricing, the clean, value-backed play here is a 1X2 wager on Fulham to win at 1.93. Fulham’s superior chance creation and Burnley’s poor home scoring record combine with a market that gives Fulham slightly better than even odds by probability. Stake with discipline and consider a conservative stake size given both teams’ inconsistency.