Prediction Chad vs Mali 2026 – Betting Tips for the CAF World Cup Qualifiers on 08/10/2025

Match preview: Mali arrive as heavy favourites in N'Djamena showdown

Chad welcome Mali to close out Round 9 of the CAF World Cup Qualifiers with very little margin for optimism. The numbers tell a bleak story for the hosts: eight group matches played, zero wins, a single draw and seven defeats, only three goals scored while shipping 19. Chad arrive on the back of a 3-1 reverse to Madagascar, a result that reinforced a run littered with losses and fragile defending. Their home goal return is almost non-existent — one goal at home across the campaign — and the team’s recent run shows just four draws and six losses in their last ten. Confidence looks thin and the defensive record suggests Mali will be able to create chances with regularity.

Mali, by contrast, have been far more consistent. Sitting fourth in the group with 12 points from eight games, they bring a confident edge fostered by six wins, two draws and just two defeats in their most recent ten fixtures. Mali’s attacking output — 11 goals in the group — and an away defensive record that includes only one goal conceded on the road and four clean sheets overall underline why bookmakers make them overwhelming favourites. Their most recent outing was a narrow 1-0 defeat to Ghana, but prior results like a comprehensive 3-0 win over Comoros show they can both score and control games when on form. The head-to-head history reinforces that gulf: the last meeting saw Mali beat Chad 3-1.

Tactical outlook and key indicators

Statistically, Mali dominate possession of the attacking metrics. They average far more shots and dangerous attacking movements per match than Chad and boast a strong shots-to-goals conversion in the tournament context. Chad’s attacking output has been painstakingly low; total goals of 3 from eight matches and worrying defensive numbers at home (six conceded) make it hard to see them troubling Mali extensively. Mali’s discipline is notable too — fewer yellow cards on average — and their ability to produce clean sheets away from home is a crucial edge in qualifiers where margins matter.

This is a clash that looks set to be controlled by the visitors. Chad will try to dig in and frustrate, but a porous backline and lack of cutting edge mean they are likely to be on the back foot for long periods. Mali’s blend of defensive solidity and clinical moments going forward should be enough to settle the contest.

Betting suggestion Mali to win (Away) — 1X2 market. The available odds put Mali as heavy favourites at 1.14, a reflection of their superior form, head-to-head advantage and clear statistical dominance away from home.