Prediction Chapecoense vs Botafogo SP 2025 – Betting Tips for Serie B on 14/10/2025

Context and form

Chapecoense head into this late-season clash at Arena Condá holding third place in the Serie B table with 50 points, a position that underlines their status as promotion contenders. The hosts have shown the sort of defensive solidity that wins points in Brazil’s second tier: 30 goals conceded across 31 matches and an impressive 10 clean sheets. Their recent run reads as a mixture of streaks and stutters — a string of wins interspersed with a few defeats — but the most immediate formline includes back-to-back successes and a 1-0 victory over Ferroviária in their last outing, where Walter Clar collected plaudits as the best performer. Chapecoense’s attacking numbers are respectable too, 43 goals overall and 422 total shots this season, a sign they create chances and press home their momentum at home.

Botafogo SP arrive in Chapecó sitting well down the table in 17th with 32 points and a leaky defensive record that has seen them concede 46 goals in the campaign. Their away form is particularly troubling: 29 goals conceded away from home hint at vulnerability on the road. A recent boost came with a narrow 1-0 win over Paysandu, where Ericson was highlighted as the standout, but that result masks a run of results that includes several defeats and inconsistent performances. Botafogo’s attacking output is limited — 26 goals in total — and their average of 11.13 shots per game suggests they struggle to turn possession into clear-cut opportunities, especially against organized defenses.

Tactical edge and venue

The match will be played at Arena Condá in Chapecó, where the home crowd and familiarity with the surface benefit Chapecoense. Statistically, the hosts generate more shots, register a higher number of on-target attempts and are more efficient at keeping clean sheets than their visitors. Botafogo SP’s game leans on quick counters and sporadic danger, but the numbers suggest they concede too often to expect a comfortable trip.

Bookmakers have already done the maths: the market pins Chapecoense as the clear favorite at 1.65, an implied probability around 60.6%, while a Botafogo upset trades long at 5.25. There is historical context too — the teams met earlier in the season with Botafogo SP winning 1-0 away — but the broader arc of the campaign strongly favors the hosts.

Betting suggestion: Back Chapecoense to win (1X2 market) — Chapecoense at 1.65. The home side’s stronger defensive record, superior chance creation and clear motivation to consolidate a top-table position make them the smart selection in the match-winner market.