Prediction Chapecoense vs Vila Nova 2025 – Betting Tips for the Serie B on 01/09/2025

Match overview

Chapecoense return to Arena Condá with momentum and a clear tilt in the standings as they host Vila Nova in a Serie B clash that looks set to draw plenty of local interest. The fixture on 01/09/2025 pits a side sitting third on 40 points against a mid-table challenger on 33 points, and on paper the home team carry both form and statistical edges. Chapecoense have been productive in front of goal this season, particularly at home, and their August results — capped by an impressive 4-0 victory away at Athletic Club — underline a team capable of turning half-chances into clear statements. Vila Nova arrive with a mixed set of results, a recent defeat at Botafogo SP and a patchy away record that makes this an intriguing contest for punters and neutrals alike.

Form, numbers and what they mean

The numbers paint a vivid picture. Chapecoense have collected 12 wins from 23 matches with a strong home scoring return, registering 23 goals at Arena Condá while conceding 12 there. Their recent run reads like a confident group: six wins, three draws and just a single loss across the reported sequence. Vila Nova’s campaign is more uneven; ten wins, ten losses and three draws reflect a side that can be potent but also vulnerable, especially on the road where they have let in 15 goals and managed 10. Statistical matchups are revealing: both teams have shown a tendency for both sides to find the net in the contexts we care about. Chapecoense’s home fixtures have seen both teams score in roughly 72.7% of cases, and Vila Nova’s away fixtures mirror that trend at 71.4%. Over/under trends are less convincing for heavy-scoring outcomes — Chapecoense’s over 2.5 percentage sits below a simple majority, while Vila Nova’s is even lower — which suggests this is likely to be a competitive, goalful but not runaway contest.

Head-to-head and recent markers

The pair met earlier in the season with Vila Nova edging Chapecoense 1-0, a reminder that small margins can decide these matches. But form since then has shifted in Chapecoense’s favor; their most recent home displays have been convincing, and their ability to press and create looks demonstrated by superior shots and shots-on-target totals across the campaign. Vila Nova remain dangerous on their day, yet their away defensive numbers and recent loss to Botafogo SP expose vulnerabilities that Chapecoense will want to exploit.

Prediction and betting suggestion

Given the balance of probabilities the market rightly leans toward a Chapecoense home win, with bookmakers pricing the hosts at roughly 2.00. Yet the most compelling single market by the data is the goal market: both teams have a consistent habit of scoring in the relevant settings. The clearest, data-backed betting suggestion is to back Both Teams To Score — Yes. The strong BTTS percentages for Chapecoense at home (about 72.7%) and for Vila Nova away (about 71.4%) point to a high likelihood that neither side will be kept off the scoresheet. This pick blends value and logic from the season’s underlying trends and recent form.