Match context and form guide
Chelsea return to Stamford Bridge on 13 December with the weight of a busy week behind them. A 2-1 defeat to Atalanta in the Champions League on 9 December was a setback, but the Blues arrive with a solid overall record in the Premier League this season — 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats from 15 fixtures, 25 goals scored and 15 conceded. Recent domestic results have been mixed, yet the home form metrics underline a team that creates chances: 209 total shots, 77 on target and an average of nearly 14 shots per match. Everton, travelling up from Merseyside, come into the tie on the back of a convincing 3-0 win over Nottingham Forest on 6 December. The Toffees have matched Chelsea on wins (7) but sit just behind in the table with 24 points and a slightly thinner attacking ledger — 18 goals scored and 17 conceded.
Tactical implications and head-to-head
Stamford Bridge promises to be a testing ground for Everton's defense. Chelsea have shown a propensity for opening up play at home, reflected in a higher corners average and dangerous attacks tally. Everton, conversely, have been effective on the break recently and arrive with confidence after their comprehensive win last time out. The head-to-head edge also nudges Chelsea: the most recent Premier League meeting ended 1-0 in Chelsea’s favour (April 2025), a slim but telling margin in what can be a tightly contested fixture.
What the numbers say
Bookmakers make Chelsea clear favourites with a home win priced around 1.66 and an implied probability over 60%. The draw is available at roughly 3.80, while an away surprise trades in the region of 5.10. Both teams show a 50% BTTS (both teams to score) rate in their respective home/away splits, signalling that goals at both ends are a realistic expectation. Chelsea’s Over 2.5 rate sits higher than Everton’s, and with Chelsea averaging more shots and dangerous attacks per match, the data leans towards an open contest where the hosts are likely to have the upper hand.
Betting outlook and closing thoughts
This fixture brings the classic Premier League mix of home pressure and visiting counter-threat. Chelsea’s superior shot volume and a more efficient home record make them the natural pick to take the three points at Stamford Bridge. Everton’s recent form — a strong win and a tendency to score — keeps the contest competitive and means a draw or a narrow Everton loss cannot be ruled out, but the market’s confidence in Chelsea aligns with the underlying statistics.
For readers building a staking plan, pairing match selection with sound discipline matters. If you want to deepen your approach to market choice, our piece on soccer betting tips and the choice of markets is a useful read; and for staying level-headed through swings, check out guidance on how to have emotional control when placing bets.
Betting suggestion: Back Chelsea to win (1X2) at around 1.66 — the data supports a home victory, with Chelsea’s higher shot volume, home advantage at Stamford Bridge and the bookmaker probability all pointing to the hosts as the best single-market pick.