Prediction Chelsea vs Liverpool 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the Premier League on 04/10/2025

Big London Night at Stamford Bridge: Chelsea vs Liverpool preview

Stamford Bridge will host one of the headline Premier League fixtures in Round 7 as Chelsea welcome table-toppers Liverpool on 04/10/2025. The clash carries plenty of narrative: Liverpool arrive sitting top of the table with five wins from six, while Chelsea are chasing consistency and sit down in eighth after a mixed start to the campaign. The fixture is threaded with recent high-stakes meetings — Chelsea banked a 3-1 victory over Liverpool in May — but the context entering this encounter leans in Liverpool’s favor given the current league form and offensive metrics.

Form, momentum and recent results

Chelsea arrive off a morale-boosting midweek Champions League win over Benfica, a narrow 1-0 victory in which Moisés Caicedo earned the match’s best rating. That result interrupts a domestic run that has been patchy; six league matches have produced two wins, two draws and two defeats. Chelsea’s goals tally across those fixtures is respectable, but their home scoring split in the provided stats suggests they haven’t been prolific at Stamford Bridge this season. Liverpool, by contrast, have enjoyed a strong run in the league: five wins and a single loss in six shows sustained attacking threat and consistency. Their Champions League trip ended in a 1-0 loss to Galatasaray, with Cody Gakpo singled out for his performance in that game, but the Reds’ domestic momentum still looks formidable.

Statistical edge and tactical pointers

The underlying numbers favour Liverpool. They lead Chelsea in total shots, shots on target and attack averages — indicators of sustained pressure and chance creation. Liverpool’s average attack and dangerous attack figures point to a side that is more likely to control territory and generate clear scoring opportunities. Both teams have registered a high proportion of matches going over 2.5 goals this season, and the shot volumes suggest this game could produce chances at both ends. Stamford Bridge, with its 41,841 capacity crowd, will be an intense environment; Chelsea’s home record and the March H2H victory remind us that the hosts can be dangerous, especially coming off a European win.

Prediction and betting tip

Bookmakers give Liverpool the narrow edge in the 1X2 market, with odds around 2.32 (implied probability ~43.1%). Considering Liverpool’s superior offensive metrics, stronger league position, and run of domestic form, they look the more reliable selection in this matchup despite the tricky away setting. Chelsea’s midweek boost matters, but Liverpool’s consistency and higher shot volumes suggest they are better placed to deliver in the Premier League on Sunday.

Betting suggestion: Liverpool to win (1X2) at 2.32.