Prediction Costa Rica vs Nicaragua 2026 – Betting Tips for the WC Qualification Concacaf on 14/10/2025

Match preview: Costa Rica heavy favourites in San José

Costa Rica welcome Nicaragua to the Estadio Nacional de Costa Rica on 14 October in what looks set to be a one-sided affair on paper. The hosts arrive in San José sitting third in the final round group, unbeaten in their three group matches with three draws and a single point haul that belies a wider run of form showing resilience and attacking output. The recent sequence for Costa Rica reads as an almost-impeccable unbeaten streak in the latest report: a run of ten results featuring six wins and four draws, with their most recent outing ending in a goalless stalemate away to Honduras. That display underlines a team hard to break down and comfortable managing matches away from the spotlight.

Nicaragua, by contrast, travel in desperate need of points and confidence. The visitors are fourth in the group with just one point from three matches and a fragile defensive record that shows six goals conceded in those games. Their recent results show vulnerability: heavy defeats to Haiti (0-3) and Honduras (0-2) have sapped momentum following a 1-1 draw with Costa Rica earlier in the campaign. On durability, Nicaragua’s results include only two wins in their last ten reported outings, making this trip to Costa Rica a stern test.

Head-to-head and recent meetings

The most recent meeting between these sides ended 1-1 on 6 September, a contest that proved competitive but did not expose a clear gulf in class. Costa Rica’s capacity to control matches at home—evidenced by strong attacking averages, an impressive shot conversion snapshot and a tally of clean sheets in the domestic metric—suggests they should be able to dominate possession and chances. Nicaragua’s previous match saw Bancy Hernández posting the team’s best player rating despite the defeat to Haiti, a bright spot in an otherwise difficult run.

Statistical edge and what to expect

Numbers favour the hosts emphatically. Costa Rica’s goal production and defensive solidity at home stand out: they’ve scored a healthy share of goals at the venue while keeping multiple clean sheets and averaging over six corners per match. Nicaragua’s attacking numbers are more modest and their defensive record away from home has been porous. Bookmakers have reflected that gulf — the home win is priced at 1.14 with a probability quoted at approximately 87.7%, while the draw and away win are long shots in comparison.

Betting suggestion

Given the weight of form, home advantage and the market consensus, the clearest value play is a straight 1X2 selection: back Costa Rica to win. The data points — a strong unbeaten run for Costa Rica, Nicaragua’s defensive struggles, and the heavy home favourite pricing — all point toward a comfortable home victory. If you prefer a conservative approach, a small stake on Costa Rica to win captures the most probable outcome according to the available information.