Prediction Cuiabá vs Novorizontino 2025 season – Betting Tips for the Serie B on 08/10/2025

Context and form heading into Arena Pantanal

Cuiabá welcome Novorizontino to Arena Pantanal on 08/10/2025 in what promises to be a tight, intensely fought Serie B clash. The standings underline how evenly matched these two sides have been this season: Novorizontino sit one place and one point above Cuiabá, occupying sixth with 47 points while the hosts are seventh on 46. Both teams boast 12 wins apiece across 30 matches, but the nuance lies in where those goals and points have been earned — and that shapes the narrative for this game.

Cuiabá arrive in a steady groove of draws and gritty results, their recent run heavy on shared spoils but hard to break down. Their last outing was a 1-1 draw with Paysandu, a game in which Alejandro Martínez produced the sort of influence that can swing tight encounters. That pattern — resilient at home, difficult to beat — reflects in their home defensive record: fewer goals conceded at Arena Pantanal, and a respectable tally of clean sheets this season. Novorizontino, meanwhile, have been more hit-and-miss on form. After a confidence-boosting sequence in late September, they suffered a setback away at Chapecoense on 04/10, losing 1-0, with Airton standing out despite the result. Their string of recent away fixtures shows a team capable in attack but inconsistent when travelling.

Tactical edge and statistical leanings

Statistically, the contrast becomes clearer. Novorizontino’s away goal count is noticeably low compared with their home output, highlighting struggles to convert chances on the road. Cuiabá have been compact at home, conceding fewer goals in their own stadium and managing a healthy number of clean sheets. Both sides are similar in overall shot volumes and attacking intent, but Novorizontino’s lower percentage of goals when away and Cuiabá’s tendency to produce draws suggest the match could be settled by narrow margins.

Head-to-head history adds a wrinkle: earlier this year Novorizontino recorded a 3-0 win over Cuiabá, reminding us this is far from a one-sided rivalry. Yet form, venue and the timing of recent fixtures suggest the pendulum may swing back toward the home side this weekend.

Betting suggestion

Back Cuiabá to win (1X2 market). The bookmakers price the home victory at 2.25 (implied probability around 44.4%), and that reflects value when accounting for Cuiabá’s home solidity, Novorizontino’s recent away struggles to find the net, and the tight margins that have characterised both teams’ results of late. A cautious stake is advised given the closeness of the table, but the home win offers the best single-market pick from the available data.