Prediction De Graafschap vs MVV Maastricht 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the Eerste Divisie on 22/08/2025

Match context and form

De Graafschap return to Stadion De Vijverberg on August 22 aiming to steady the ship after the narrow 1-0 reverse at Roda JC on August 15. The Superboeren have shown they can be incisive in attack this campaign, producing three goals in two league outings and creating a healthy number of attempts — 43 total shots with 15 on target — numbers that underline an aggressive approach at home. Their mini-league ledger reads one win and one loss, good for three points and an 11th place standing, but the broader form picture is mixed. The previous outing saw Ibrahim El Kadiri earn plaudits with a standout performance in the Roda encounter, a reminder De Graafschap possess match-winners capable of making the difference when chances are carved out.

MVV Maastricht arrive to Doetinchem under pressure. Two league fixtures have yielded two defeats, zero goals scored and five conceded, leaving them anchored at the foot of the table. Their shots profile is slimmer — 26 total efforts and only seven on target — and the recent 0-1 reverse to FC Dordrecht on August 16 highlighted their struggles to find a cutting edge late in the build-up to this meeting. Sem Westerveld’s performance for FC Dordrecht in that match was notable, but for MVV the challenge is structural: few clear scoring opportunities and a defence that has already been breached multiple times this season.

Tactical outlook and head-to-head

Playing at De Vijverberg is significant. De Graafschap’s home stats show a team that presses forward with intent: strong corners average (10.5) and dangerous attack numbers that suggest continued territorial dominance. MVV’s numbers indicate they are more likely to weather pressure than to initiate permanent spells of control; their corners average is almost half De Graafschap’s, and their attacking averages are lower despite similar dangerous-attack figures, pointing to a side that struggles to convert possession into real goal threats.

Head-to-head relevance is limited by the most recent meeting ending goalless back in March, but football rarely repeats itself exactly. The referee for this fixture, Wouter Wiersma, will oversee what promises to be a contest where the hosts seek to exploit numerical and territorial superiority.

Prediction and betting suggestion

All signs point to a De Graafschap victory. They combine superior shot volume, a more threatening home profile and the psychological comfort of playing in Doetinchem, while MVV’s blunt attack and early-season defensive vulnerabilities make an away comeback unlikely. Bookmakers mirror this view with a clear home bias in the market.

Suggested bet: 1X2 — De Graafschap to win (odds 1.45).