Prediction Deportes Tolima vs Boyacá Chicó 2025 – Betting Tips for the Liga BetPlay on 15/09/2025

Match preview: Tolima set to flex home advantage in Ibagué

Deportes Tolima returns to Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro with momentum and a clear statistical edge as they prepare to host Boyacá Chicó in round 11 of the Liga BetPlay Clausura. Tolima sit sixth in the table with 17 points from 10 matches and a home record that underlines their attacking capability: they have produced a healthy volume of shots and goals at home, and their season numbers show a team capable of creating chances consistently. The Tolima side arrives off a narrow 1-0 defeat to Llaneros, but that result sits among a run that includes convincing wins over Millonarios and Once Caldas earlier in the month. The club’s recent H2H history also favours them: the earlier meeting this year ended in a 4-1 victory for Tolima, a reminder of the gap that has opened between these two teams in recent encounters.

Boyacá Chicó, by contrast, occupy 18th place and have struggled for consistency. They have managed just nine points from nine matches and have conceded heavily away from home, a troubling sign given Tolima’s attacking averages. Chicó’s last outing was a 2-0 loss at Deportivo Pasto, and their sequence of results shows more defeats than wins in recent fixtures. Their shots and goals metrics lag behind Tolima’s outputs, and their away goals conceded figure suggests defensive vulnerability when forced to chase or contain in hostile stadiums.

Tactical edge and formline: why the home side looks safer

On paper and in the numbers, Tolima’s balance between attacks and defensive solidity makes them the natural pick. Their home metrics reveal a side that both creates and converts chances, while Boyacá Chicó’s stats point to trouble trying to stifle opponents on the road; their away goals conceded figure is particularly alarming. Tolima’s recent formline — featuring multiple wins, a small number of draws and few losses — also contrasts with Chicó’s inconsistency. The referee for the day, Andrés José Rojas Noguera, will preside over a fixture where home momentum and crowd support at the 28,100-capacity Manuel Murillo Toro should be decisive.

Betting suggestion

Given the clear home advantage, superior season metrics, recent head-to-head dominance and the market pricing that heavily favours Deportes Tolima (home odds around 1.40), the most logical single-market play is a straight 1X2 selection: back Deportes Tolima to win.