Prediction Deportivo Alavés vs Sevilla 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the La Liga on 20/09/2025

Match context and momentum shift

Deportivo Alavés welcome Sevilla to the Estadio de Mendizorroza on 20/09/2025 in what shapes up as a compelling La Liga clash. On paper and form, this fixture has the feel of a home side carrying momentum into a tricky test. Alavés arrive having collected seven points from four league matches and sit seventh in the table after a confidence-boosting 1-0 win away at Athletic Club last weekend — a result that underlines their defensive discipline and capacity to grind out three points on the road. That victory, with Antonio Sivera singled out as the standout performer, will have the squad feeling upbeat as they return to a stadium that holds just under 20,000 fans.

Sevilla, by contrast, have endured a more inconsistent start. Four matches have produced just one win and a draw, leaving them 12th with four points. Their latest result, a 2-2 draw at home to Elche where Rubén Vargas earned plaudits, highlighted both an attacking spark and defensive vulnerability — they’ve conceded seven goals in those opening fixtures. The head-to-head from earlier in the year settled at 1-1, a reminder that this fixture usually entertains balance and can be tight.

Tactical hint and underlying numbers

The statistical picture offers intriguing nuance. Alavés’ home numbers show they create a respectable volume of chances — averaging 107 attacks and nearly 40 dangerous attacks per match — while recording two clean sheets across their recent run. Their home matches have seen both teams score in recent meetings, and they’ve conceded three over four league fixtures, suggesting solidity without being impenetrable.

Sevilla pack more attempts on goal overall, an average of 11 shots per match and a higher shots-inside-box count, which explains their higher goal tally (seven) so far. Their matches also skew towards entertainment; Sevilla’s fixtures have exhibited a stronger trend to over 2.5 goals, with three out of four games reaching that threshold. However, their defensive lapses — four away goals conceded already — create an opening for a home side looking to exploit transitions and set-piece moments.

Verdict and prediction

This is a classic clash between Alavés’ form and home cohesion versus Sevilla’s attacking promise but defensive inconsistency. Bookmakers make Alavés the marginal favorite at 2.40, and the data supports that lean: better recent results, a positive away win last time out, and home advantages at Mendizorroza. Expect a competitive match with chances at both ends, but ultimately the momentum lies with Deportivo Alavés.

Betting suggestion (1X2): Back Deportivo Alavés to win @ 2.40 — the pick favours the home side’s current form, defensive solidity and bookmaker probability as the best single-market play from the available data.