Prediction Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for La Liga on 20/10/2025

Match context and recent form

La Liga rolls into Gasteiz on October 20 with Deportivo Alavés hosting Valencia at the intimate Estadio de Mendizorroza. The home side sit comfortably mid-table in 10th with 11 points from their campaign so far, while Valencia are struggling in 15th with just eight points. Alavés arrive off a morale-boosting 3-1 victory over Elche, a result that underlined their attacking promise at Mendizorroza, while Valencia come in wounded after a 2-1 defeat away to Girona. The recent head-to-head between these sides also offers Alavés a psychological edge — a 1-0 victory in May suggests home comforts have paid off before.

How the numbers shape the clash

Look deeper into the statistics and a clear picture begins to form. Alavés have been more productive in front of goal at home, netting seven of their nine total league goals on their own turf, and conceding five there. Their attacking metrics show substance: 90 total shots this season with 30 on target, an average of 11.25 shots per game and an attacks average north of 109 per contest, complemented by a healthy dangerous attacks average of 44.38. Those numbers portray a side that presses forward and creates chances regularly at Mendizorroza.

Valencia’s numbers tell a different story. Their defensive fragility stands out — 14 goals conceded in eight matches overall, and particularly worrisome away form where they’ve shipped 11. Their attacking output is respectable with 10 goals overall and 26 shots on target across fixtures, but their conversion and defensive lapses have cost them. Valencia’s over 25 minutes of game-time intensity is reflected by a higher over 2.5 frequency (62.5%), suggesting their matches often produce multiple goals, but consistency has been lacking.

Head-to-head and betting markets support the home lean. Bookmakers show the market favouring Alavés at around 2.26, with the draw and Valencia trailing at 3.00 and 3.40 respectively. Alavés’ home BTTS percentage stands out too — 80% of their home fixtures have featured both sides scoring — while Valencia’s away BTTS sits at 50%, indicating a decent chance of goals at both ends even if Alavés enter as favourites. Recent standout performers include Jonny Otto, who earned match recognition in Alavés’ win over Elche, and Diego López, who was Valencia’s top performer in the loss to Girona.

Final take and betting suggestion

Given the balance of probabilities — Alavés’ stronger home profile, Valencia’s away defensive issues, the recent h2h edge and the bookmakers’ pricing — the clearest value sits with backing the home side in the 1X2 market. The recommended bet is a Deportivo Alavés win (1) at the quoted market price, with the understanding that Valencia can still find the net and make this a lively contest.