Prediction Deportivo Garcilaso vs UTC Cajamarca 2025 – Betting Tips for the Primera Division on 26/09/2025

Match context and momentum

The upcoming clash at Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega in Cusco on 26 September has all the hallmarks of a one-sided affair on paper. Deportivo Garcilaso arrive in buoyant form, unbeaten in the Clausura so far with an impressive run that includes four wins and five draws from nine matches, placing them fourth in the table on 17 points. Their recent slate reads like a team able to grind results: a 1-1 draw with Melgar followed by an eye-catching 4-3 away victory over Alianza Lima, and other tight results that underline consistency and resilience. The home side’s attacking output is healthy too — 23 goals scored at home this season — and their defenses have held firm enough, conceding 12 at home.

UTC Cajamarca, by contrast, arrive low on confidence and points. Sitting 19th with just three points from nine games, their autumnal slide is highlighted by a string of defeats and only occasional draws. Recent matches saw losses to Universitario and ADT and a failure to find consistency, leaving them with zero wins in the Clausura. Defensively they have been porous, particularly away from home where they’ve conceded 31 goals, a glaring weakness likely to be exploited in the high altitude and intensity of Cusco.

Head-to-head and statistical leanings

History offers a mixed signal — an earlier meeting in the season saw UTC beat Garcilaso 2-1 in May — but seasonal form trumps that previous result. Deportivo Garcilaso’s home statistics are convincing: strong goal-scoring numbers combined with solidity and a run of clean sheets evident in their campaign data. The market reflects these realities: bookmakers price the home win around 1.48 with an implied probability of roughly 68%, while the visitors are long shots at 6.25. Both teams have been involved in matches that go over 2.5 goals about half the time this season, but the clearer pattern is the gulf in form, points and defensive stability.

The atmosphere in Cusco’s 42,056-capacity ground will be a factor too; Garcilaso can feed off the crowd and the altitude advantage to press an already struggling UTC side.

Betting suggestion: back Deportivo Garcilaso to win (1) in the 1X2 market at the available odds of 1.48. This pick aligns with the home side’s unbeaten run, superior league position (4th vs 19th), stronger home goal production and UTC’s alarming defensive record on the road.