Prediction Deportivo Pasto vs Independiente Medellín 2025 – Betting Tips for the Liga BetPlay on 19/08/2025

Match preview

Deportivo Pasto return to Estadio Departamental Libertad on 19 August looking to halt a stuttering run in the Clausura. The home side sit 15th in the standings with four games counted in this phase and have collected five points from a mixed string of results: a narrow defeat to Envigado on 15 August was their most recent setback, following earlier draws and a morale-boosting 3-2 win over Tolima. Pasto’s attack has produced 19 goals at home this campaign while their defence has been breached 11 times on home soil, showing a team that can be entertaining but occasionally porous. The atmosphere in San Juan de Pasto will be lively — the stadium holds 20,665 and the fans will demand more from a side that has shown it can both score and concede in equal measure.

Form and recent meetings

Independiente Medellín arrive in more convincing form and sit sixth in the group, having taken ten points from six matches. Their recent sequence is impressive on paper: wins against Llaneros and Jaguares, plus a steady run of league victories suggest momentum. Medellín’s defence has been particularly reliable away from home, and their tally of 17 clean sheets this season underlines a side that is difficult to break down. The head-to-head edge is notable too — Medellín won the earlier clash between these teams in March by 1-0, a result that will give them belief heading into this encounter.

Tactical edge and statistical clues

Numbers point to Medellín holding the advantage. They generate almost 92 attacks per match and average over 40 dangerous attacks, far outstripping Pasto’s output. Medellín’s volume of total shots and shots on target is significantly higher, while their corners average and lower fouling rate suggest control and discipline in the final third. Pasto do show a respectable home scoring rate and a higher percentage of games with both teams scoring at home, but their over 2.5 goals percentage is lower than one might expect, and recent fixtures have been tight affairs—several 1-0 and 0-1 results pepper recent match reports for both sides.

Prediction and betting tip

Expect a tactical battle where Medellín’s structured defence and superior attacking intent on paper will test Pasto, who will rely on home energy and moments of attacking promise. The away side’s recent consistency and previous 1-0 victory over Pasto tip the balance.

Betting suggestion: 1X2 market — back Independiente Medellín to win (odds 2.25). This selection blends Medellín’s recent form, superior attacking volume and defensive solidity with their favourable head-to-head record and the bookmakers’ own lean toward the away side.