Prediction Djibouti vs Sierra Leone 2026 – Betting Tips for the CAF World Cup Qualifiers on 12/10/2025

Match preview

The Group Stage encounter in the CAF World Cup Qualifiers on 12/10/2025 brings a stark contrast in form and fortunes as Djibouti welcome Sierra Leone. On paper and in practice this season, Djibouti have been on a bruising learning curve. Nine group matches have yielded a solitary point, a string of defeats and a defense that has been carved open repeatedly. Sierra Leone, by contrast, sit comfortably in third with a balance of results that still keeps them very much in the mix for a stronger finish. The recent meeting between the pair in June 2024 ended 2-1 in favour of Sierra Leone, and all signs point to a similar outcome this time around.

What the numbers say

Djibouti’s numbers are brutal but revealing: four goals scored across nine matches and 31 conceded. Their home performances have not offered sanctuary, with the side shipping double-digit goals at venues labelled as “home” in the data and failing to keep a clean sheet all season. Sierra Leone have been steadier, producing ten goals and conceding nine, and collecting a trio of wins and three draws in their nine group outings. Statistically, Sierra Leone edge a number of key attacking metrics: their dangerous attacks average is higher and they generate more corners, suggesting greater sustained pressure in the final third.

Recent form adds colour to the forecast. Djibouti arrive fresh off a 0-3 loss to Egypt where Abdillahi Elmi was named the side’s best performer but could not stem the flow. Sierra Leone, meanwhile, were narrowly beaten 0-1 by Burkina Faso, a result that will sting but also underlines that they defend better than Djibouti. The head-to-head history, while limited, favours the Leone Stars and provides psychological leverage going into this fixture.

Expectations and likely flow of the match will see Sierra Leone control the tempo and probe a fragile Djibouti backline. Djibouti will attempt damage limitation and hope for set-piece moments or the rare counter to change the script, but the gulf in defensive solidity and recent competitive results tells a clear story.

Betting suggestion

Based on the comparative form, defensive records and recent meetings, the strongest single-market recommendation is a 1X2 pick for the away win: back Sierra Leone to win. Their superior goal differential, history against Djibouti and steadier performances in key attacking and defensive metrics make them the most probable victor on 12/10/2025.