Prediction Estonia vs Italy 2026 – Betting Tips for WC Qualification Europe on 11/10/2025

Preview: Estonia desperate, Italy hunting momentum

Estonia returns to Sportland Arena in Tallinn on 11/10/2025 with work to do in this World Cup Qualification Europe Group Stage clash. The home side sit fourth in the group after five matches, collecting just three points from one win and four defeats. Their campaign has been punctuated by heavy defeats and defensive frailties, with five goals scored but a worrying 13 conceded. Recent results underline a side struggling for consistency — a goalless draw in a friendly with Andorra offered a brief respite, but Estonia’s competitive form has been poor: losses to the group’s stronger outfits and only one victory since March. Their home attacking output has been modest, with only one goal logged at home in qualifying so far and an average of just 7.2 total shots per game.

Italy, by contrast, will arrive in Tallinn positioned second in the group and with much better recent form. The Azzurri have recorded three wins in four qualifying fixtures, carving out a dozen goals while conceding seven. Their recent fixtures feature high-scoring encounters — notably a 5-0 rout of Estonia earlier in the campaign and a thrilling 5-4 victory away in Israel — that reflect an attack capable of producing multiple goals. Italy’s offensive numbers stand out: an impressive shots average of 22.75 per match and 28 shots on target across their games, plus a high proportion of dangerous attacks, signal a team likely to dominate possession and chances.

Tactical glance and momentum

This pairing looks set to be one-sided on paper. Estonia’s defensive record — no clean sheets in recent outings and an average of 2.6 goals conceded per match in the group — will be tested severely by Italy’s firepower. The head-to-head already provides context: Italy dismantled Estonia 5-0 in their previous meeting, with Italy combining clinical finishing and sustained pressure. Estonia’s attempts to stifle the visitors will be hampered by a lower corners average and fewer dangerous attacks, while Italy’s superior ability to create and convert chances suggests the visitors will probe constantly for openings.

As the qualification race tightens, Italy will be keen to maintain momentum and build goal difference, while Estonia must find defensive resilience at home to salvage points. The match at Sportland Arena feels likely to unfold in favour of open play and scoring chances rather than a cagey, low-scoring affair.

Betting suggestion: Based on attacking statistics, recent form and the emphatic head-to-head, the most compelling market is the goal market. Expect goals — favour Over 2.5 goals for this fixture. The data supports multiple-scoring opportunities from Italy and vulnerability at the Estonian back, making Over 2.5 the sensible single-market pick.