Prediction Exeter City vs Arsenal U21 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the EFL Trophy on 28/10/2025

Match context and recent momentum

Exeter City welcome Arsenal U21 to St James Park on 28 October in a Southern Group Stage fixture that carries more than local pride; it offers a statement early in the EFL Trophy. Exeter arrive with mixed domestic form and a group table that reads harshly for the Grecians: one game played, no points, and a solitary goal conceded. The club’s recent League One results have shown ebb and flow — a solid 2-0 victory over Plymouth Argyle on 23 October is the freshest memory of positivity, with Ed Turns singled out for his influence on that night. Yet the broader sequence for Exeter is uneven, a blend of wins, draws and too many losses that leaves the home side vulnerable to a well-prepared opponent.

Arsenal U21, by contrast, stride into Devon top of the group with three points and real attacking appetite. Their opening group success, a 2-1 win, is in keeping with a run that includes a handful of victories across youth competitions and a competitive outing at Chelsea U21 most recently, where Charles Sagoe Jr. featured in a 2-1 defeat. The young Gunners have produced more shots, more efforts on target and a higher rate of dangerous attacks than Exeter in the data available; they look sharper in transition and more consistent in creating opportunities.

Tactical outlook and key factors

At St James Park, Exeter will seek to leverage home familiarity and a capacity to grind out results on their day, but their recent defensive inconsistencies and lower shot totals relative to Arsenal make that task tricky. Arsenal U21 boast a higher average of shots and shots on target, and their group-stage outing shows they can both score and concede — a sign of an adventurous approach rather than conservative containment. The history between the two sides in the EFL Trophy does not favor Exeter either; the most recent head-to-head was a comprehensive 5-0 win for Arsenal, a result that will linger in the minds of both camps.

Referee Sam Mulhall will oversee a match where momentum and youthfulness could be decisive. Home support and the size of St James Park offer Exeter a platform, but the numbers favor an away side that has been more clinical in creating chances and has the confidence of being top of the group.

Prediction and betting suggestion

Taking the available form, group standings and attacking statistics into account, the clearest market to back is the 1X2. Arsenal U21 look the more likely victors given their sharper attacking output, recent winning momentum in the EFL Trophy group and a dominant head-to-head history. Betting suggestion: back Arsenal U21 to win (Away – 1X2). This pick reflects Arsenal’s positive group position, superior shot and chance metrics, and their ability to break down opponents away from home. Keep stakes sensible and consider match dynamics — if Exeter find an early foothold the contest could tighten, but based on the provided data the away win is the strongest single-market selection.