Prediction FC Groningen vs Heracles Almelo 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the Eredivisie on 29/08/2025

Match context and recent form

FC Groningen return to the Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadium on 29/08/2025 to host Heracles Almelo in a clash that promises entertainment more than defensive solidity. Groningen occupy 11th place early in the 2025/2026 Eredivisie season with three points from three matches, while Heracles sit rooted to the bottom in 18th with no points so far. The referee appointed for the fixture is Rob Dieperink and the venue in Groningen holds just over 22,500 fans — a lively backdrop for what looks set to be an open affair.

Groningen’s recent results have been mixed but revealing: a 4-2 defeat at PSV on 23 August followed a 2-1 home win over SC Heerenveen and a heavy 4-1 reverse at AZ. The pattern shows a side capable of scoring but also vulnerable at the back; the club has five goals for and nine conceded in league play. Heracles arrive from a 2-0 loss at Ajax and have suffered 4-0 and 1-4 defeats in earlier rounds, leaving them with a single goal scored and ten conceded across their three league fixtures. Both teams arrive with worrying defensive numbers, so the scoreboard is likely to be busy.

Statistical battle and what to expect

The underlying numbers back up the expectation of goals. Groningen’s three home fixtures have all produced over 2.5 goals, giving them a 100% over 2.5 record at home in the sample available, while Heracles have seen two of their three matches finish above that threshold. Groningen’s attacking metrics are stronger on volume — 36 total shots with 19 on target — compared to Heracles’ 26 shots and nine on target. Both sides have yet to keep a clean sheet this season and their goals conceded tallies (9 and 10) underline systemic defensive frailties.

The head-to-head from April this year also points to scoring potential: the last meeting ended 4-1 in Groningen’s favour, a reminder that Heracles can be beaten but also that the game can turn into a goal-heavy encounter. Bookmakers give the home win the edge at 1.90 (implied probability 52.63%), with the draw priced at 3.50 and an away shock at 4.00.

Prediction and betting suggestion

This fixture reads like a doorway for goals rather than a cagey tactical stalemate. Groningen will be confident playing at home and have the firepower to test Heracles’ porous defence, while Heracles’ attempts to escape the foot of the table have so far left them exposed at the back. Expect both teams to create chances and concede them in return, translating into a match with more than two goals.

Betting suggestion: Back the Goal Market — Over 2.5 goals.