Form guide and what's at stake at Euroborg
When FC Groningen host PEC Zwolle at Euroborg on 23/11/2025 the fixture carries the feel of a midweek chance for the home side to consolidate a top-half place while the visitors scramble for breathing room near the relegation zone. Groningen sit sixth with 19 points after 12 matches and arrive off a chastening 2-0 defeat to NEC Nijmegen, but their broader sequence reads better — three wins in their last three fixtures according to the latest run of results. PEC Zwolle, down in 15th on 12 points, have flashes of resilience, notably a 1-0 win over Sparta Rotterdam, but their formline is patchy and their defence has been punished repeatedly this season: 27 goals conceded in 12 games is stark.
Tactical signals and statistical edges
The underlying numbers lean toward Groningen. Their attack has generated 164 total shots across the campaign (an average of 13.67 per match) and they produce more dangerous attacks and corners than PEC, giving them the territorial and chance-creation advantage. PEC manage fewer attempts (104 total, 8.67 per match) and have struggled on the road, where their defensive record is worse — 17 goals conceded away so far. Head-to-head context is mixed: the last meeting in May saw PEC take a 2-0 win at home, so Groningen have a score to settle at Euroborg, where they should feel comfortable in front of a 22,525-capacity crowd.
Bookmakers have clearly taken the same reading: the match-winner market prices FC Groningen at 1.56 (about a 64.1% implied probability), a draw at 4.00 and an away victory at 5.90. The markets reflect Groningen’s superior chance creation, better home defensive numbers (five goals conceded at home across the campaign), and PEC’s leaky away defence.
How to approach this market and responsible staking
This is a classic league match where the book reflects the objective gap: home favourite, conceding occasionally but creating enough to tilt the outcome in their favour. For readers refining market choice, the piece “Soccer betting tips and the choice of markets” Soccer betting tips and the choice of markets is a good primer on when to back favourites like Groningen. Also, remember to control emotion and stake sizing — practical advice is covered in “How to have emotional control when placing bets?” How to have emotional control when placing bets? which is especially useful when favourites carry short odds.
Betting suggestion (1X2): Back FC Groningen to win. The probability edge is clear in the numbers and odds (1.56), and Groningen’s superior shot volume, home comfort at Euroborg and recent winning momentum point to a solid home victory as the most likely outcome. Stake conservatively given the low return — this is a value play on form and match control rather than a big-odds gamble.