Prediction FC Midtjylland vs Sturm Graz 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the Europa League on 24/09/2025

Match preview: Midtjylland geared to make home advantage count

FC Midtjylland head into this Europa League opener at MCH Arena buoyed by an excellent domestic sequence. Their recent string of results reads like a statement of intent — dominant wins at Aalborg (3-0), KuPS (2-0) and a last outing 2-0 versus Viborg — and the form line supplied shows eight wins, one draw and a single defeat in the latest ten. At home the numbers are equally persuasive: seven goals scored and only one conceded, three clean sheets and an average of 6.67 corners per game, underlining a side that presses advantages and creates sustained attacking pressure. Philip Billing’s best-player rating in the last match spotlights a player currently carrying influence for Midtjylland.

Sturm Graz arrive off the back of strong results too, most notably a 2-0 victory away to Salzburg two days earlier, and their recent sequence shows seven wins from ten. Tomi Horvat’s standout rating in that Salzburg match indicates the Austrian side can produce big performances on the road. Yet the dataset for Sturm Graz is thinner on the granular stats for this preview — no shots or corner averages are provided — which leaves room for the home side’s clearer statistical profile to dominate the narrative.

Tactical outlook and what to expect on the night

Midtjylland’s profile is that of an organised home outfit: good attacking volume (an average of 20.5 shots and strong numbers inside the box) combined with defensive discipline. Their dangerous attacks average and clean sheet count suggest a team that can break opponents on transitions and control tempo in their stadium. Sturm Graz have shown they can win tight matches and keep tidy defensive records themselves, but their away statistical footprint isn’t listed here, making them the slightly less certain proposition.

Head-to-head history adds a small psychological edge: the last recorded Europa League meeting between these sides ended 2-0 to Midtjylland in 2022, a reminder that the Danes have managed this opponent on the continental stage before.

Prediction and betting suggestion

Given the clearer home metrics, superior recent domestic form and the bookmaker odds favouring the hosts (Home 1.71, Draw 4.00, Away 4.30), the strongest single-market play from the available choices is a 1X2 bet on FC Midtjylland to win. The combination of attacking volume, home defensive record and recent confidence provides a sound basis to back the home victory. Betting suggestion: Back FC Midtjylland to win (1) at 1.71.